Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers Free Pick ATS

The Packers dominated the rivalry with the Lions for about 25 years, but that’s certainly not the case as of late, heading into the 188th meeting between these teams Thursday night at Lambeau Field.

Detroit went off as the favorite to win the NFC North this season while Green Bay was widely expected to finish last. But both teams are off to 2-1 starts. How are we playing this game with our free NFL betting pick?

NFL Betting Lines

The Week 4 NFL betting market opened Green Bay as a two-point home dog for Thursday night, with an over/under of right around 45. Early betting action shaved that spread down to one point.

Lions Betting Preview

Detroit is riding the roller coaster so far this season. The Lions opened with that big 21-20 victory over the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs at Arrowhead, then came home and lost to Seattle 37-31. But the Lions rebounded last week to beat Atlanta 20-6.

Detroit took the lead for good on the Falcons on a Goff- La Porta touchdown connection early in the second quarter, pushed its advantage to 20-3 early in the fourth and closed things out from there. The Lions also covered as three-point favorites.

Detroit out-gained Atlanta 358-183, out-rushed the Falcons 115-44, won the time of possession 33:27 and recorded seven sacks.

The Lions ranked dead last in the League in total defense last season, giving up 392 yards per game. So far this season that unit ranks 11th, holding foes to 297 YPG.

Packers Betting Preview

Green Bay is 2-1 on the season after stealing a game from New Orleans last week 18-17. The Packers got outplayed by the Saints for three quarters and trailed 17-0 well into the fourth. But Green Bay rallied with scores on three straight possessions to take the lead, then survived a missed New Orleans field goal with a minute left.
The Packers ended up out-gaining the Saints 340-252, although almost all of their yardage came in come-back mode. Also, New Orleans lost starting QB Carr to a shoulder injury in the third quarter and didn’t score after that.

Green Bay opened this season with a 38-20 win at Chicago, but it should be recognized the Bears really stink. The Packers then led Atlanta 24-12 in the fourth quarter but gave up the last 13 points of the game to lose 25-24.

So Green Bay lost a game it should have won, then won a game it should have lost. Also, playing against low expectations, the Packers are 3-0 against the spread.

These teams have played one common opponent so far this season; Detroit out-gained Atlanta by 175 yards while Green Bay got out-gained by the Falcons by 223 yards. On the injury front both these teams are already banged- up, the Packers more so than the Lions. Bettors might
want to consult later injury reports before getting down on this game.

Lions-Packers Recent History

Green Bay dominated this rivalry for about 20 years but Detroit owns the edge as of late, winning seven of the last 12 meetings SU, going 10-2 ATS in the process. Last year the Lions swept the two games from the Packers by scores of 15-9 at Ford Field and 20-16 at Lambeau.
It was that second one that was especially delicious for Detroit, that Week 18 win that kept Green Bay out of the playoffs.

NFL Betting Trends

Through Week 3, NFL home teams are just 22-26 SU, 19-
26 ATS.
Through Week 3, NFL favorites are 28-20 SU but 20-25
ATS.
Stretching back into last season, Detroit is 10-3 SU, 11-2
ATS over its last 13 games.

Totals Report

The Unders are 2-1 in Lions games this season, which are averaging 45 total points.
The overs are 2-1 in Packers games, which are averaging
47 points.

The unders played 2-0 in Lions-Packers games last season, which averaged just 30 total points.
Through NFL Week 3, the unders are 25-23.