NY Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Week 11 Pick - Snoozefest or Fireworks?

NY Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Week 11 Pick - Snoozefest or Fireworks?

Cliff Knox
Date: November 19, 4:25 pm
Location: Highmark Stadium

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Buffalo Bills -7.5
Moneyline: Bills (-370)/ Jets (+290);
Total: 39.5

In the upcoming NFL matchup, the New York Jets are set to face the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. The current point spread favors the Buffalo Bills by 7.5 points, and the total for the game is set at 39.5.

Last 5 Games

New York Jets In their most recent game, the New York Jets faced the Las Vegas Raiders and lost with a score of 12-16. They did not cover the spread as 1-point underdogs and the game went under the total of 35.5. The Jets struggled offensively, amassing only 365 total yards, with their defense conceding 274 yards to the Raiders. Buffalo Bills The Buffalo Bills' last game was a narrow defeat against the Denver Broncos, ending 22-24. As 7.5-point favorites, the Bills failed to cover the spread and the game went under the set total of 47.5. Buffalo managed a total of 369 yards in offense but gave up 300 yards defensively, and turnovers played a critical role in their loss.

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Power Stats

Yards Per Point

New York Jets: Offense - 17.69, Defense - 16.11 (Differential +1.59) Buffalo Bills: Offense - 14.13, Defense - 17.97 (Differential -3.84)

The Bills have a more efficient offense, needing fewer yards for each point scored, but the Jets' defense is more effective in making opponents work harder for their points.

Yards Per Pass

New York Jets: Offense - 8.81, Defense - 8.51 (Differential +0.3) Buffalo Bills: Offense - 10.31, Defense - 9.45 (Differential +0.86) Buffalo holds the advantage in passing efficiency, both offensively and defensively.

Yards Per Rush

New York Jets: Offense - 4.72, Defense - 4.30 (Differential +0.42) Buffalo Bills: Offense - 4.59, Defense - 4.61 (Differential -0.02) The Jets have a slightly better rush game, both in offense and defense.

Key Offensive and Defensive Stats

Jets' Offense vs. Bills' Defense: The Jets average 16.00 points with 179.22 passing yards and 103.89 rushing yards per game. The Bills' defense allows an average of 18.40 points, 215.40 passing yards, and 115.20 rushing yards per game. Buffalo’s defense could pose challenges for the Jets’ struggling offense. Bills' Offense vs. Jets' Defense: The Bills score an average of 26.20 points, with impressive passing (253.60 yards/game) and rushing (116.50 yards/game) stats. The Jets' defense, allowing 19.11 points, 169.33 passing yards, and 138.44 rushing yards per game, will be tested by Buffalo’s dynamic offense.

Betting Odds Trends

New York Jets

  • Struggled against the spread, going 4-8-1 in their last 13 games.
  • Underperformed in recent games, with a 4-11 SU record in their last 15.
  • Tend to be involved in low-scoring games, going under the total in 4 of their last 5.

Buffalo Bills

  • Have been disappointing for bettors, with a 0-5 ATS record in their last 5 games.
  • Despite a strong start, they've been 2-4 SU in their last 6 games.
  • Consistently involved in low-scoring affairs, with the total going under in 5 of their last 6 games.

Why the Under is the way to bet

Analyzing the upcoming New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills game, several factors suggest a likelihood of the total score staying under 39.5 points:

  1. Defensive Strengths: Both teams have shown considerable defensive prowess. The Bills have a defense that allows only 18.40 points per game, ranking high in overall defense. The Jets are also strong defensively, conceding an average of 19.11 points per game. Strong defenses on both sides could limit scoring opportunities.
  2. Offensive Challenges: The Jets' offense has struggled, averaging only 16.00 points per game. With the Bills' tough defense, the Jets may find it difficult to significantly contribute to the total score.
  3. Recent Under Trends: Both teams have a tendency to be involved in low-scoring games, as indicated by their recent 'under' records. The Bills have gone under the total in 5 of their last 6 games, while the Jets have seen the total go under in 4 of their last 5 games.
  4. Quarterback and Offensive Inconsistencies: Both teams have had issues with offensive consistency, which could lead to stalled drives and limited scoring.
  5. Head-to-Head History: Looking at recent matchups, the total has gone under in 5 of the last 6 games between these two teams. This trend suggests that their games tend to be more defensive battles than high-scoring affairs.
  6. Weather and Playing Conditions: Playing at Highmark Stadium in late November could involve challenging weather conditions, which can often lead to lower-scoring games, especially if wind or cold becomes a factor.

Jets vs Bills Free Total Pick

The Bills have suffered a slew of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, but remember this is the Jets with Zach Zach Wilson behind center. Take the Under

Free Pick: Take the Under 39.5
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