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The Tar Heels went a perfect 8-0 straight-up in ACC play this season as a part of a successful 11-1 regular season run, but they came up short against No. 1 Clemson in the conference title game with a tough 45-37 loss as 6.5-point underdog. Despite failing to cover in that loss, North Carolina was 6-3 against the spread in its last nine games. The total went OVER 68 against the Tigers and it has gone OVER in four of its last five outings.
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The main plus that North Carolina brings into this matchup is the ability to put points on the board. It comes in ranked 11th in the nation in scoring with an average of 40.9 points a game. The Tar Heels have shown solid balance between moving the ball through the air and running it on the ground behind quarterback Marquise Williams and running back Elijah Hood. Together, these two helped this unit rack-up an average of 487 yards of total offense a game.
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Baylor was on the fast track to a possible spot in the College Football Playoff with a SU 8-0 start (4-4 ATS), but the Bears' postseason plans started to unravel with three losses in their last four games both SU and ATS. They closed-out the season with a disappointing 23-17 loss to rival Texas as 20.5-point home favorites. The total stayed well UNDER 63 in that game and it has now stayed UNDER in four of their last six games.
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This team's sudden downfall can be traced back to a season-ending injury to quarterback Seth Russell. The Bears did manage to beat Kansas State and Oklahoma State with him out of the lineup, but he was sorely missed in losses to Oklahoma, TCU and the Longhorns. All indications point towards sophomore Chris Johnson getting the start at quarterback against the Tar Heels. He logged some playing time in Baylor's last three games to throw for 220 yards and three touchdowns in 38 attempts. Look for running back Shock Linwood to be a bigger part of the offensive scheme in this game after rushing for 1,329 yards and 10 scores in the regular season.
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North Carolina Tar Heels vs Baylor Bears Game Betting Trends
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The Tar Heels are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a SU winning record, but they are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral-site games. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five nonconference games.
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The Bears are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games outside the Big 12 and they are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has gone OVER in their last five games played at a neutral site.
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This will be the first meeting between these two teams in recent memory.
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