It’s a Bluegrass State rivalry bout when Louisville of the ACC hosts Murray State of the FCS Thursday night at Cardinal Stadium. Both teams opened their new seasons with victories last week, the Racers rather comfortably, the Cardinals, not so much. But the spread on this game indicates a mismatch. Which way are we going here with our free Murrray State/Louisville pick?

College Football Betting Odds

This week's college football betting market opened Louisville at -40 for Thursday night, with an over/under of right around 54. Both figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

Murray State-Louisville College Football Betting Preview

The Racers, now playing out of the Ohio Valley Conference, opened their season last Saturday with a 41-10 victory at home over FCS Presbyterian. Murray State scored the first 10 points of the game, led 17-10 at the half, then pulled away in the second half, outscoring Presbyterian 24-0, on its way toward the W. The Racers out-gained the Blue Hose 484-196, ran the ball for 231 yards and dominated time of possession by a 37:23 split. Of course, Louisville will probably provide a little tougher competition Thursday night. Murray State played 11-7 in its first two seasons under Coach Hood in 2020 and ’21 but fell to 2-9 last year. So the Racers are looking to rebound this season, and they’re off to a good start. Louisville, meanwhile, opened its season and the Coach Brohm era with a 39-34 come-from-behind victory over Georgia Tech last Friday in Atlanta. The Cardinals held an early lead but gave up touchdowns on four straight Yellowjackets possessions to trail 28-13 at the half. Louisville then used a 26-0 run in the second half to take control. But near the end the Cardinals allowed Georgia Tech to score a catch-up touchdown and lost ATS as seven-point favorites. The Cardinals actually got out-gained by the Ramblin’ Wreck 488-474 but won the turnover battle 2-1, creating at least a +10 points differential. Louisville returned 13 starters this season from a team that played 8-5 last season. The Cardinals are playing against a wins over/under of eight.

Murray State-Louisville Recent History

These programs, separated by a morning’s drive, met most recently back in 2017, a 55-10 Cardinals home win. But Louisville, quarterbacked by Heisman winner Lamar Jackson that day, came up one score short of covering at -48.

College Football Betting Trends

Murray State is 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS its last four games vs. FBS opponents. Louisville is 3-0 SU but only 1-2 ATS its last three games vs. FCS foes. The ACC played 13-0 SU but only 5-8 ATS vs. the FCS last season.

Totals Report

The totals are 2-2 over Murray State’s last four games vs. FBS opponents, which averaged 48 total points. The unders played 9-4 in Louisville games last season but last week’s game against Georgia Tech played over a total of 49.