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In Week 12 NCAA football action it's the Michigan Wolverines versus Penn State Nittany Lions. Kick off for this match is scheduled for 12:00 PM on the grass of Beaver Stadium. The linesmaker opened the Wolverines as 5 point favorites with a total of 42. Betting on this game has driven the line down to -3.5 and shaved a point off of the total line making it 41.5 at writing.
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Michigan moved to 8-2 on the season with a 48-41 OT win over Indiana in their last game and they are at 5-5 ATS after not covering as a 12.5-point favorite.
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In their last game Penn State fell to 7-3 on the season with a 23-21 loss to Northwestern and they are at 4-6 ATS after not covering as a 2-point favorite.
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Last season at Michigan the Wolverines beat the Nittany Lions 18-13 and they covered as a 2.5-point favorite. When these 2 teams met last at Penn State 2 seasons ago the Nittany Lions beat the Wolverines 43-40 in OT and they covered as a 2-point underdog.
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Michigan ranks 49th in total offense and 2nd in total defense and Penn State ranks 93rd in total offense and 13th in total defense.
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<strong>Sagarin Rankings</strong>
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Michigan: 85.97<br />
Penn State: 77.14
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<p>
<strong>Michigan at Penn State Betting Trends</strong>
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MICH is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.
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MICH is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
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MICH has an Over record of 5-0 in their last 5 games.
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PSU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
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PSU is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
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PSU has an Under record of 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
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This season Penn State has an O/U record of 3-7 and Michigan has an O/U record of 5-5.
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Penn State is undefeated at home this season (6-0).
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The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games between these 2 teams.
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In the last 8 games between these 2 teams at Penn State the total has gone Over 6 times.
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<h2>
Michigan at Penn State Point Spread Pick<br />
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<p>
The Wolverines exploded for 97 points in their last two games, but when you consider the competition's defense it doesn't impress and remember that 14 of the 48 points against Indiana came in double overtime. Michigan QB Jake Rudduck passed for 777 yards in the two matches, but he was facing the 128th ranked pass defense of the Hoosiers and the 119th of the Scarlett Knights. This week they'll face the No. 2 ranked pass defense of the Nittany Lions so expect Ruddock to find the coverage a lot tighter in this match. The Run defense is Penn State's weakness allowing large yardage to Army 261, Ohio State 315, Maryland 241 and Northwestern 227, but the Wolverines haven't proved that they can consistently run the ball ranking 67th with 168.8 yards per game.
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The Penn St. offense averages a poor 25.2 points per game, but it is on the improve scoring 31 against Maryland at home and 39 against Illinois and 21 on the road against a very tough Northwestern team at home. Michigan's defense in most statistical categories ranks higher that Penn State's, but has really dropped off from their early season dominance. After five game span of holding opponents to an average of 150.2 total yards per game the Wolverines' defense has allowed an average of 399.7 in their last four games. The Nittany Lions have yet to lose at home this season and I believe that streak will continue this week. That said, I'll take the 3.5 points in what should be a close match.
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