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The Spartans stunned the college football world with a 17-14 upset of Ohio State on Nov. 21 as 14.5-point road underdogs. They followed this up with a 16-13 win against Iowa in the Big Ten Championship as three-point favorites to lock-up a spot in this year's College Football Playoff. Overall, Michigan State is 12-1 straight-up and it has been a solid betting team down the stretch with a 5-1-1 record against the spread over its last seven games. This was after it failed to cover in its first six games this year. The total stayed UNDER 50 in that conference title game and it has stayed UNDER in three of the Spartans' last four contests.
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To pull-off an upset in this contest, Michigan State is going to need another strong effort from a defense that was tied for 19th in the country in points allowed (20.5). Offensively, it averaged a solid 32.3 points a game behind 396.8 total yards per game. Conner Cook threw for 2,921 yards and 24 touchdowns, while LJ Scott led the team in rushing with 691 yards and 11 scores on 140 attempts. Cook had been hampered a bit with a shoulder injury, but all indications point towards him being ready to go.
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Alabama lost in Week 3 of the season in a 43-37 setback against Mississippi as a nine-point home favorite, but it has been perfect ever since with 10 SU wins. The Tide laid claim to another SEC title with a 29-15 victory against Florida as 16.5-point favorites on Dec. 5. It was the first time they failed to cover in their last five games as part of a 7-6 record ATS. The total went OVER 38 against the Gators after staying UNDER in three of their previous five games.
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Behind Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry, Alabama averaged 208.2 rushing yards a game. He only got better as the season wore on and he comes into this game with 1,986 total yards rushing and 23 scores on the ground. Jake Coker led the passing game with 2,489 yards and 17 touchdown throws. This is another team that relied heavily on its defense to help seal-up a number of wins this season. It was ranked third in the nation in points allowed; giving-up an average of 14.4 points a game.
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Michigan State Spartans vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Game Betting Trends
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The Spartans have covered ATS in their last four bowl games and they are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games played at a neutral site. The total has gone OVER in five of their last six bowl games.
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The Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the Big Ten, but they have failed to cover in 10 of their last 13 nonconference games. The total has gone OVER in eight of their last nine bowl games.
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These two last met in 2011 in the Orlando Citrus Bowl with Alabama rolling to a 49-7 victory as 10.5-point favorites. The total went OVER the 50.5-point closing line.
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