Gasparilla Bowl Betting Analysis, Odds, & Pick ATS

Gasparilla Bowl Betting Analysis, Odds, & Pick ATS

Darin Zank
Date: December 23, 6:30 pm
Location: Raymond James Stadium
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds

Point Spread: WF -2/Mizz +2
Total: 58.5

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In the first of two match-ups this bowl season pitting the ACC against the SEC, Wake Forest meets Missouri in the Gasparilla Bowl Friday night in Tampa. The 7-5 Demon Deacons started great this season but fell back to Earth in the second half; 6-6 Mizzou started poorly but finished well. Ultimately, the line on this game says just pick the winner. Which way are we going for our free Gasparilla Bowl betting pick?
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Gasparilla Bowl Betting Odds<br />
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<p>
The college football bowl season betting lines opened Wake Forest as a 3.5-point favorite for this Gasparilla Bowl, with an over/under of right around 62. Early betting action dipped the Deacons to -1 and dropped that total to 58.5. According to Sagarin’s ratings at USAToday.com, Wake should be favored by three points for this match-up.
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Gasparilla Bowl Betting Preview<br />
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Wake Forest started 6-1 this season, with wins over Liberty and Florida State, the only loss coming in overtime to eventual ACC champion Clemson. But the Demon Deacons then won just one of their last five games, falling to Louisville, North Carolina State, and North Carolina, closing with a 34-31 loss at Duke back on Nov. 26. Nonetheless, at 7-5 overall, Wake is back in a bowl for the seventh straight season. The Deacons, powered by a potent passing attack helmed by QB Sam Hartman (44 career starts), hit the 30-point mark ten times out of 12 games this season. But they also gave up at least 30 each of their last five times out. Missouri, meanwhile, started 2-5 this season, with losses to eventual Big 12 champion Kansas State and close ones to eventual SEC champ Georgia and Florida. But the Tigers won four of their last six games, including the season finale, with bowl eligibility on the line, 29-27 over Arkansas back on Nov. 25. So Mizzou is back in a bowl for the second straight season, although it didn’t really deserve a bid last year. The Tigers struggled at times offensively this season, going one eight-game stretch in which they were held to 17 points or less five times. But they then scored 74 points in winning their last two games. Meanwhile, the Missouri defense limited six of its last ten opponents to 21 or less. On the personnel front, several Missouri starters, including its leading receiver, two defensive linemen, and a safety, opted out of this bowl game. These two teams played one common opponent this season, Vanderbilt. Back in September, Wake Forest beat the Commodores 45-25 and covered at -14, while a month later, Missouri beat Vandy 17-14 but came up short ATS at -14. This Gasparilla Bowl will be the first-ever meeting between these two programs. The other ACC-SEC match-up this bowl season pits Clemson against Tennessee in the Orange Bowl Friday, Dec. 30.
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By the Numbers<br />
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Wake Forest averaged 448 yards per game on offense this season but allowed 411 YPG defensively while playing what Sagarin ranked as the 59th-toughest schedule in college football. Missouri averaged 371 YPG on offense this season and held opponents to 337 YPG while playing Sagarin’s 30th-toughest schedule.
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<span style="font-size:16px; color:#008000;">Get more details:</span> <a href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/ncaaf/matchup/1801941">Wake Forest vs. Missouri 12/22/22 Betting Stats</a>
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College Football Bowl Betting Trends<br />
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The SEC played 6-3 both SU and ATS against the ACC this season.
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Totals Report<br />
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The Unders are 7-5 in Wake Forest games this season and are averaging 66 total points.
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The Unders are 8-4 in Missouri games this season and are averaging 50 points.
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Wake Forest vs. Missouri Betting Prediction ATS 12/23/22

Wake Forest gets the check-mark on offense, especially at the QB spot, and while Missouri owns the better defense, that unit will be short-handed Friday, with several opt-outs. However, our guess is the Tigers can plug some guys into those holes and still have success on that side of the ball. Also, Mizzou played the tougher schedule and finished better than the Deacons. And finally, the SEC beat the ACC heads-up this season. We’re taking the Tigers Friday.

Free Pick: Take Missouri +2
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