The stock in Idaho is so high that it is set up perfectly for a let-down. Nevertheless, there is no question that Lafayette’s defense is one that is very tough to put faith in. They are statistically ranked the worst in the FBS and this is what is likely driving this market. Nevertheless, there was a silver lining discovered in the dark cloud of the Ragin’ Cajuns’ loss to their hated rivals. Despite trailing by as much as 16, Louisiana-Lafayette’s defense kept the game from getting out of hand. In doing so, their proficient offense was able to get Lafayette back in the game. With a week off to recuperate, the Cajuns have had extra time to prepare for this fixture and thus offer value with enhanced points. Remember, they were favored in some markets now they are a significant pooch.

Typically laying chalk has many disadvantages but when the public smothers an underdog to the extent we have seen Maryland, some red flags should be raised. As stated, the Terrapins have never beat this football team but many aren’t considering such an event from occurring in Columbus. The points however, look deceptively scrumptious. Given the fact that Maryland owns a win in a hostile environment earlier this season, the perception here is that they can compete in this setting as well. However, Urban Meyer has certainly studied up on the Terps. It is very likely that Texas was caught napping when they curated the hosting duties and Maryland was able to steal a victory be that they were one of the most lackluster outfits in the Big Ten in 2016.

Ohio State has a format to beat this team and to do so convincingly. The Buckeyes won’t re-invent the wheel here by any means and will likely thump this Maryland team who has been returning to Earth after getting off to a hot start.

Out of the gate we have seen this market move by two points thanks to action rolling in on OU. The Sooners own the longest current active winning streak in the country and as such you can expect to pay a price backing this outfit until it eventually stubs its toe. Against a foe like Iowa State who experienced peril in its Big 12-opener. The pre-supposition here is that a grim fate awaits the Clones as they head to Norman. However, Iowa State is a far better team than Baylor, an outfit this Oklahoma Sooners team had a lot of trouble against.

Baylor is 0-5 on the year but managed to take it to the Sooners as a pup offered at near identical price to what we see here. We can vehemently rehearse and recite the premiums that will be associated with taking back a typical blue-blood like the Sooners as well, given the fact they are playing at an elite level the number next to their name is going to be ludicrous. In spite of all of this, this team has fared exceptionally well against the spread overall as of late regardless of the Baylor result. This once again sets up Oklahoma for yet another adjustment and we will take advantage of that narrative here.

We have stressed this before and we will stress it again, in game where the Over/Under is so high you can expect a shootout. In a shootout, it is essential to take the points if it is anything above a touchdown. Kansas has been given two touchdowns and a field goal plus. Given the potency of both offenses and the stock of Kansas being low at the moment, the Jayhawks are set up perfectly to come in under a number that is likely too high for Texas Tech to cover. The margin of victory in Texas Tech’s wins against FBS opponents in 2016 is five points, mainly because their defense is so generous. Take the points.

This contest has all the makings of a trap game. The venue is an early kick-off where a top-five ranked team comes in off yet another drubbing of a perceived inferior opponent. Situationally, this contest will likely be an anchor for many to start off parlays with over the span of Saturday. State will undoubtedly be a popular choice to start the day off right for many. However, takers beware. The Nittany Lions may have a resume that looks flawless but this is a football team that has not really faced any competition this year outside of an undefeated Iowa team in Kinnick Stadium. Penn State should have lost the game be that it had to come down to the last play and heroics to declare a victor. Entering the affair, Penn State was a two-possession favorite.

While the talk of the town may be Saquon Barkley and his Heisman candidacy, the Wildcats’ have a weapon of their own and his name is Justin Jackson. Jackson is also one of the better backs in America. Jackson knows how to beat this Penn State team as he was there for both Northwestern triumphs dating back to 2015, presenting an optimal fade opportunity.

The betting public should be all over Louisville in this game, but the real value in the betting odds is NC State getting points at home. Both teams have taken a rather easy route through the nonconference portion of their early schedule, but in a head-to-head matchup, I actually think NC State gets the overall edge in light of a better defense. Playing in front of the home-town crowd only makes the Wolfpack more attractive as underdogs. Take the four points and take the home team in this ACC clash.

The stock in the Buffaloes is quite low after they were beat down by the Washington Huskies on its own field, last Saturday. However, UCLA is a step back compared to the Huskies. Washington is the defending Pac-12 Champions, the #6 team in America, and they have had a special recipe to defeat the Buffaloes and it dates back to last season. UCLA’s defense is non-existent and they rely solely on the arm of Josh Rosen to win. The Bruins cannot be trusted spotting points as this has been proven to be dangerous all year long. Colorado will exploit UCLA’s weakness and there is a chance there is an upset on the horizon in the Rose Bowl.

The most prudent move of course is to take points be that it is near double-digits in a shootout. However, some large investments have been apparently made to coincide with this notion. There is also a possibility that Oklahoma State is being short-sold and is in position for a big win after they were crushed last week. However, we are spotting serious points to a team that has a potent offense when OK State’s defense is a question mark. The Under is the best play here be that almost all believe this game is going to be an exceptionally high-scoring affair. On the contrary, it is very possible that we see a fairly high-scoring game where the defense has somewhat of impact. The Pokes were able to hold Tulsa’s offense to 24 points and Tech was able to do the same with Houston. Both teams are known for their offenses. Therefore, the Under is the best play here.

Targeting overreactions is a tool we use in our betting acumen. Louisiana-Monroe’s outright defeat of arch-rival Louisiana-Lafayette on the road is bound to prop up the stock of the Warhawks heading into the contest. On the contrary, since defeating UMass in its season opener Coastal Carolina has penned performances that only worsened on a weekly basis. It is worth highlighting that the Warhawks blew a huge fourth quarter lead to the Ragin’ Cajuns before they would finally get the victory in overtime. As impressive as the Warhawks victory maybe on paper, it could have easily gone a rye given the dynamics that went into it. Situationally, the Chanticleers are set up perfectly as an excellent fade opportunity be that the Warhawks have no business spotting this amount of points.

This matchup will definitely test the limits of an already inflated 70-point total line, but when all the smoke clears between these two conference foes, I have the Knights coming away with the SU victory that also covers the four-point spread. UCF is just a bit more balanced across both side of the ball with a defense that knows how to keep teams out of the end zone.

The popular presumption here is that LSU is unbeatable under the lights in Death Valley at night. After all, this is a place that once generated seismic energy due to the loudness of the crowd. However, the conversation here is not whether the Tigers will win but whether the number presented here is overzealous. Chances are, it is. LSU at home is a spot that inflicts many premiums upon takers. Nevertheless, Mississippi State exposed LSU’s defense and Troy State has a format to adhere to if they are looking to find ways to score. Syracuse was able to generate 26 points in LSU’s follow-up to that grisly loss in Starkville. As a result, the Tigers failed to cover a similar line to the one offered this week. Given the fact, Troy’s performances have been less than academic they are due for an outing that is above market analysis. With the number offered on the table, situationally this seems to be that moment.

Vanderbilt’s stock has been thrown through the floor in spite of what transpired last week in Nashville against Alabama. Now, they are in perfect position be that they are likely taking back an inflated number given the fact they are going to Gainesville against a Florida team that is in off yet another win. With Vanderbilt off the radar, not only are the Dores in position to cover but perhaps given the Gators yet another scare. Coach Derek Mason has the blueprints from their 2016 collision and will likely repeat success by replicating what it achieved in the previous meeting.

Situationally, this sets up a perfect scenario to step in on the Trojans. As mentioned, USC has not had a signature win this year and Washington State has not faced a team close to USC’s caliber. The closest thing that the Cougars had faced in terms of quality competition was Boise State and at one point in that game they trailed by as much as 21. Had Boise State not atypically collapsed this fixture would have an entirely different flavor in the build-up. The fact remains the Cougars’ stock is through the ceiling and USC’s is through the floor. As a result, we have an opportunity here to take back a likely short-priced favorite who is due to cash tickets for any takers. Let’s not forget that even if USC doesn’t play up to the billing yet again, we green up if they win this one by a touchdown. Given the fact Washington State has had trouble against the one prolific offense they faced this season, this should not be a problem for one of the nation’s most talented units.

There are still quite a few unknowns with the Hurricanes given the lack of playing time and the lofty No. 14 ranking is based more on past merits than present ones. I see Miami running into a very tough opponent on the road this week that could very well be poised to pull off a big SU upset. Either way, I am still taking Duke and the 6.5 points to cover.

Both teams have not played this rivalry game since 2012 but Texas State has actually held the upper hand in this feud when it was more of an annual affair. It is without doubt that Frank Wilson has UTSA heading in a direction of being a contender for the Sun Belt but nevertheless this game will likely be treated as a bowl game by Texas State. Given the fact the Bobcats had a very difficult 2016 campaign, this contest at home could serve to be a silver lining for a disenfranchised football team. Look for a motivated Bobcats team to keep this one close.

In the early going we have seen 89% of the consensus fancy the Nittany Lions against the spread, opting to lay road points as opposed to taking them back with the Black and Yellow. Last year, we saw a similar predicament materialize when Iowa came in as a three-touchdown home pooch when they hosted a then undefeated Michigan Wolverines team. The Hawkeyes would continue to orchestrate one of 2016’s biggest upsets on paper when they would defeat the Maize and Blue on a game-winning field goal to edge them out in Iowa City. A similar scenario can certainly unfold here. Kinnick Stadium is known as a notorious setting where many teams have gone and stumbled. You can blame the pink walls on the visiting locker room or the mystique that surrounds the Hawkeyes in this fabled ground. Either way, Penn State is a risky play.

September 29th was a date circled on the calendars of all Washington State supporters, coaches, and players. This is the day that USC comes to town and Washington State was preparing to be undefeated when the Trojans came to Pullman. This narrative was revealed to the nation when the Cougs hosted Boise State, two weeks ago. It is very possible that the Cougars were caught looking ahead against Boise and thus they fell behind by three touchdowns. Washington State was a team designed to score points at a fast pace so they were able to make a comeback but at the same token it could be difficult for them to sustain leads if their operations stall. Nevada has little appeal or value but given the amount of points here they are certainly worth a look. With USC only a week away now, there is a very good chance that Washington State looks to get by in this game as they prepare for what they believe will be a primetime showdown against a perennial power. With the prospect of Washington State looking ahead, the Cougars are a great fade here.

Overall, Lafayette has been the far superior program when compared to Monroe but this may no longer be the case. The Ragin Cajuns have regressed to a woeful state where they failed to qualify for a bowl game and even contend for the Sun Belt title. The Warhawks have always been regarded as a cupcake by many accounts and will likely enter this game “free-rolling”. Monroe will play with nothing to lose and everything to gain and given the fact this market is offered at an underdog-friendly price, there is tremendous value on the Warhawks.

This game has all the features that can set up the Wolverines for an epic fall. Purdue is undergoing a transformation and it is clearly evident by the quality of results they have fostered in comparison to their 2016 efforts. Michigan has a huge tendency for let-downs. With the Wolverines making quick work of clearly inferior opponents, takers may have a false sense of confidence in an overvalued and possibly overrated Michigan football team. This is the same club that was shocked in Iowa in 2016 as a three-touchdown favorite. In eerily similar capacity, the Wolverines enter with substantial hype and a deceptively good price to the naked eye. Don’t bite the bait.

As a whole, the California Golden Bears football program has slumped in recent years. From a combination of failed strategic experiments to hard luck losses, the Bears have seemingly fought back to relevance in 2017. The Bears already have two outright wins as an against-the-spread underdog to showcase the fact this team is better than many perceive. On the contrary, USC does not look as good as the hype machines have portrayed them. While the Trojans may get out of Strawberry Canyon with their fourteenth win in this rivalry series, the Golden Bears will certainly make them work for it.