I went against Memphis last Thursday night and paid the price. I also missed the obvious play on the OVER between two explosive scoring teams. Turning to this matchup, I am not going to make the same mistake twice in a row. While a play on the OVER in this game would probably make sense given the way that both teams have been able to put points on the board lately, I am going to lay the 10 points and take the Tigers to cover at home.

The stock on South Alabama is through the ceiling as they own two wins against two recognized names in the Sun Belt this season. Be that the Panthers were smashed by Troy (a team that South Alabama defeated as an 18-point pooch), the assumption here is that USA will have their way in this one. On the contrary, the Panthers will likely take advantage playing this one at home. To the eyes of State, South Alabama is a more winnable game and all GA State faithful know this too. The atmosphere will likely be far more animated and as a result State is certainly worth a look on the Money Line as well, given the low spread.

This position is one that is a good one to take the favorite. Markets are bound to be extra sharp in this contest be that it features two name-brand programs on a primetime stage. This number is bound to be fairly accurate as a result. Notre Dame is perhaps one of the most underrated teams currently in college football. USC has been overrated and grossly overvalued, all year long. This match-up is another scenario where corrective measures will be leveraged against the Trojans. Notre Dame should win this game decisively.

The Sooners are set up once again for a huge let down. Manhattan is a notorious venue for teams to find themselves ensnared. Many believed that Kansas State was going to pull off such a feat against TCU last week, but the Frogs were prepared. However, with Oklahoma back on track after a win against Texas combined with K-State getting shelled, the opposite directions of both teams curates the possibility that the Sooners find themselves in trouble yet again. Coach Bill Snyder has the ability to get his teams to play better as the season rolls along. You can rest assured that a second straight hideous result is not on the horizon for Kansas State. Lest we forget, California came into their meeting with a former-ranked #8 Washington State Cougars in Berkeley at an identical price and similar back story; they were smacked the week before by a top-five ranked team in Washington. The rest is history.

The good news here is that someone is going to win their first game of the 2017 season. The question is who? We have seen UMass in a situation earlier this season where they were spotting points as home hosts to Hawaii. The Minutemen would leave the field with heartbreak and Hawaii would travel 5,000 miles to pick up a 38-35 win. Very simply, the Minutemen are not a team that can be trusted spotting this kind of lumber. In this occasion, we will get on board and take the Eagles with the points. As mentioned, their offense has been playing better each week and the UMass defense has been more than accommodating to opponents all season long. An upset (if it should be called that) may be brewing in Hadley.

This is an obvious mismatch on paper that should turn into a mismatch on the field, but laying three touchdowns in what has been a pretty decent rivalry over the years carries quite a bit of risk. The Tar Heels are playing for pride with their bowl chances already shot and I actually think they can take advantage of the Hokies possibly looking past this game to cover with the 21 points.

From the get-go, the public has fancied the Chippewas from a consensus perspective. Nevertheless, we have seen little movement in the market so far to determine which way the money is going in the point spread. What we have seen is noted changes in the Over/Under. The market has decreased by 2.5 points to its current position at 48.5. This reveals heavy action on the Under. >What jumps out to us here is the number offered, as it is one to entice action on the favorite. If the Chips were to edge out the Cards by a field goal, takers would green up. Given the fact that Ball State has been in exceptionally poor form as of late, the proposition seems too easy. Nevertheless, much of this can be chalked up to the close margin of victories in the previous three contests between both sides. But that is actually irrelevant given the fact these are two different teams compared to the 2014 and 2015 editions. What is of interest to us the current price and the hook attached to it. The old saying holds water yet again here, if it is too good to be true it most certainly is. Ball State is not only worth a look as an against the spread option but also on the Money Line.

In the early stages, Texas Tech has garnered the action as we have seen this market increase by a point due to action on the Red Raiders. In forums, the discussion is Texas Tech rebounding at home after a bitter loss last week. These proclamations were issued in spite of many calling for Iowa State to earn a top-25 ranking in the most recent polls.

Situationally, we like the number that Texas Tech is presented with as a favorite to target. The number in itself draws attention to the Red Raiders and entices action by virtue of the fact a touchdown-plus conversion generates a cover for takers of the chalk. However, more often than not we have seen the underdog win outright in this distinct scenario. If there is any team that has proven it can march into a hostile environment and beat the better team on paper, it’s the Cyclones. Put Texas Tech on upset alert.

The situation is one we like be that Oklahoma State is prone to get into trouble. Next week, a huge showdown is on the horizon with West Virginia in Morgantown in what will be a pivotal affair for both squads. One has to wonder if the Pokes will get distracted from the build-up. Oklahoma State owns the best offense in America and likely one of the best offensive weapons in wide receiver James Washington but they have achieved this distinction whilst playing no one for the most part. The one time this team played any squad with any form of a defense (TCU), they struggled. Texas is a team that has played solid defense since giving up 51 points to Maryland in its opener. Needless to say, Texas will keep this game close. If Oklahoma State doesn’t do their homework they may get up-ended in Austin.

Given the contrasting accounts of each team’s performance so far in 2017, this number is quite auspicious. Marshall is one of college football’s renaissance teams so far this season, while the Blue Raiders have taken leaps backward. Despite all of this, Middle Tennessee State is not even taking back a field goal. The number is quite fishy and suggests that the underdog is in line to pull off an upset. The Blue Raiders may be worth a look on the Money Line as an outright play.

Memphis has played well all season long, but it is facing a Houston team that is much better than the one that failed to show up last week against Tulsa. Along with the motivation to get back to their winning ways, the Cougars will also be out for revenge following last year’s tight 48-44 loss to the Tigers as six-point road favorites. Lay the three points and take Houston both SU and ATS in Thursday night’s AAC tilt.

Both teams may employ different means to move the ball down the field, but each one has been highly effective at getting the ball into the end zone. The fact that Navy can do it so effectively on the ground gives it the slight edge in this matchup. The spread has come down from four points to 3.5 and it should continue to move in favor of the Midshipmen so I am locking things in right now with a play on Navy covering ATS.

The Sooners owned the longest current active winning streak in the country but that has come to a screeching halt. No one result has sent ripples through the college football landscape like what Iowa State did to Oklahoma, last Saturday. Very quickly the market has shown a bias and reluctance toward the Crimson and Cream. A presiding notion is that since Texas beat Iowa State by ten, they will likely have their way in this contest. Heavy steam indicates that many takers are operating off this philosophy. However, there is probably not a better time to take Oklahoma given the fact their stock is so low. With the CFP all but wrapped up at this point, wrecking Texas will serve as a great moral victory for the Sooners.

Targeting overreactions is a strategy that is a sound one in sports betting. No team is more prone to generate an overreaction by virtue of their previous week performance than Iowa State. Iowa State took down one of college football’s titans on its own turf. Now, this team gets to celebrate that victory at home with a far weaker opponent coming to town. The question of whether or not the Cyclones enter this contest with a hangover is a big question. When you couple this with the fact that this team was taking back 31 points a week ago to now spotting nearly three touchdowns plus conversion, that is an enormous swing to barter with. Don’t get caught drinking the Iowa State Kool-Aid as this team is set up for a huge let-down.

Out of the gate, we have seen an initial lean on Washington State reflected in a half point line movement in favor of the Cougars. This game has all the makings of a trap game where Washington State can stub its toe. Outside of USC, Washington State’s resume is not overly impressive this year. They own wins against Nevada and Oregon State which are two cupcake teams and a victory against a FCS featherweight in Montana State. All of these matters were settled in Pullman. The Cougs stepped up their weight-class against Boise State but had to rally back in overtime to avert an upset when they trailed by as much as 18. Sure, the Cougars beat USC but Washington State spent nearly a month preparing for it. USC treated the Cougars like another day in the office and the rest is history. Many argued that Washington State may get a scare in The Autzen Zoo but they went against a less-than-full health Oregon team. Now, Washington State enters Berkeley with a fresh target on its back as the #9 team in the land. They will face a Cal team looking to make a statement victory before an animated environment. Let’s not forget Cal has already defeated UNC and Mississippi this year, games they were supposed to lose by considerable margins. Upset alert is on.

Situationally, this contest has all the makings for Lafayette to suffer a huge let-down and provides us with an excellent fade opportunity. The stock in Texas State has sunk even further after falling to the team that Lafayette failed to beat in their annual Battle of the Bayou. Nevertheless, Lafayette pulled off an upset of a team that won nine games in 2016. Thus, the Cajuns’ stock has been revitalized. As a result of the contrasting directions both team have gone in last week, the number next to Texas State’s name is likely inflated and we will go ahead and take advantage.

Clemson received a bit of a wake-up call in its tighter-than-expected 14-point win last Saturday. I get the feeling the Tigers will show up on Friday with a bit more sense of urgency to put this game away early to try and give Bryant an early night. This is another game that the Tigers should win by more than three touchdowns and I am betting that they will get the job done this time around.

San Diego State continues to rise in the polls and has now reached its apex in 2017. The stock on the Aztecs is through the ceiling, given the fact they are the defending Mountain West Champions in two consecutive seasons. However, UNLV proven to be a value play in its own right given the fact it has successfully covered in its last three. While the Rebs may impose a premium here on takers in most cases, this is the not the way of it in this situation. This is a football team whose offense is catalytic when it gets going and given the fact the initial offering in the Over/Under market suggests this will be an offensive-oriented affair, the Rebels should come in under the number in what is likely an overreaction to SDSU’s continued climb in the polls.

This should be a great matchup between SMU’s high-powered offense against Houston’s shutdown defense. The Cougars have dominated this matchup over the years, but the series has been far more competitive in recent meetings. Revenge could be a factor after the Mustangs stunned Houston last season 38-26 as heavy 23.5-point home favorites, but SMU is not going to sneak up on anyone this year. I am looking for quite a few points to go on the board on both sides of the matchup in a game that goes OVER a very favorable 63-point total line.

Finding value is often derived from assessing which teams’ stock is exceptionally high and conversely, extremely low. For Marshall and Charlotte, the two situationally are at opposite ends of the spectrum which likely means there is enhanced value on the 49ers. Marshall comes in off a big win that impressed many. Charlotte seems to be a bit of snake-bitten dog. As a result, reactions to both have pushed this market to its current juncture.

Charlotte has a blue-print for success on how to beat Marshall. After all, they beat this very team last year in its own backyard. The 49ers are desperate for a win and they will enter this game with a “nothing to lose” mentality. Teams of this nature are dangerous to overlook. With a revenge game on the horizon against Old Dominion in Huntington next week, Marshall maybe caught guilty of doing just that.