Baylor Bears at TCU Horned Frogs Betting Odds - Point Spread Pick

Baylor Bears at TCU Horned Frogs Betting Odds - Point Spread Pick

Rich Crew
Date: November 27, 7:30 pm
Location: Amon Carter Stadium

Betting Odds

Point Spread: TCU -1
Total: 78.5

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The Baylor Bears will travel to Fort Worth to take on the TCU Horned Frogs on Friday night. Kickoff for the Big 12 game is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET on 11/27/15. The odds on this game opened with the Horned Frogs a 1.5 to 2-point favorite depending on the sportsbook with the total line set at 79 points.
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Baylor is coming off of a 45-35 victory over the Oklahoma State last week getting the money for their backers easily covering the 3-point spread. The 80 points scored in the game crossed over the total line for the second straight OVER to bring their record to 7-3 versus the O/U line.
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TCU lost a close one 30-29 on the road to a very good Oklahoma team getting the money as a 19-point underdog. The 59 points fell below the 64 total line for the fourth UNDER for the Horned Frogs in their last five games. On the season TCU is 5-6 versus the over/under line.
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These two teams have met the last five seasons with Baylor holding a 3-2 edge straight up, but TCU holding the edge against the point spread covering four of the five matches. The OVER has been a profitable bet, cashing in four consecutive games in this series.
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<strong>Here are some team statistics to ponder.</strong>
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Baylor has the No.1 scoring offense and leads the FBS in total offensive yards. They've compiled the 4th most rushing yards and rank No. 9 for passing yards. On the other side of the ball the Bears numbers are not very impressive ranking 87th in scoring defense allowing 30.7 points per game and a poor 94th in the nation in passing yards allowed.
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TCU's offensive numbers are similar to Baylor's ranking 6th in scoring offense with 42.9 points per game, third for total yards and fifth in passing yards. Defensively the Horned Frogs have done a better job than the Bears ranking 62nd in scoring defense allowing 26.5 points per game and ranking 68th in total yards allowed.
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<strong>Sagarin Rankings</strong>
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Baylor: 91.38<br />
TCU: 87.79
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<strong>Baylor at TCU Betting Trends</strong>
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The OVER bet has cashed in eight of the last eleven games Baylor has played.
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The Bears have won their last five straight up as a visitor.
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TCU is 17-2 in its last 19 games overall.
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TCU and Baylor have gone over the in four of their last five meetings.
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<strong>Public Money</strong>
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The public money is on Baylor big time with 79% of the point spread bets. The total line wagering has gone the way of the UNDER with 65% of the betting public on that side of the line.
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Baylor Bears at TCU Horned Frogs Point Spread Pick

Here's where I'm at on this game. The TCU offensive line is banged up missing their starting center Joey Hunt and starting LG Jamelle Naff and they'll be facing a Baylor defense that has been stepping it up in the pass rush with nine sacks in their last two games. If TCU QB is available for this game, it would very unlikely that he'd be anywhere near 100% on that ankle making him one dimensional. If Boykin doesn't go Bram Kohlhausen is likely to get the start and while he rallied the troops to get within one, but I believe it was Sooners falling asleep at the wheel after taking a 30-13 lead in the third quarter. The Bears have their own issues on offense with their first and second string QBs out. Third stringer Chris Johnson will get the start at QB and while he did okay in relief last week going 5 of 10 for two TD's and one INT I expect Baylor to heavily weighted to the run this week. With the status of Boykin up in the air I'm going to pass on a spread play and lay down on the total.

Free Pick: Take the UNDER 78.5 -RC
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