A longshot challenges a top seed when Penn State battles Purdue in the Big 10 tournament championship game Sunday afternoon in Chicago. Not long ago the 10th seeded Nittany Lions looked like they’d need a minor miracle to make the NCAA tournament. Now they’ve got a chance a claim an automatic bid if they can pull an upset of the Boilermakers here.

Who do we like for our free Big 10 tournament championship game betting pick?

College Basketball Betting Odds

The NCAA basketball betting market opened Purdue as a six-point favorite for this Big 10 championship game, with an over/under of right around 135. Both figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

According to Sagarin’s CBB ratings at USAToday.com the Boilermakers should be favored by 5.5 points for this match-up.

Big 10 Championship Game Betting Preview

Penn State reached this Big 10 tournament championship by beating Indiana in a semifinal match-up Saturday 77-73. The Nittany Lions, playing as 3.5-point underdogs, grabbed a double-digit lead midway through the first half and led 34-26 into the locker room. Penn State then allowed the Hoosiers to tie it at 47 midway through the second half but scored the next seven points of the game and held on from there.

The Lions only shot 40 percent from the field Saturday but hit 23/26 from the free-throw line and out-rebounded Indiana 38-30.

Penn State opened this Big 10 tournament with a 79-76 victory over Illinois, then beat Northwestern in overtime 67-65. The Lions also won four of their last five regular-season games. So Penn State is 8-1 SU, 6-2-1 ATS its last nine times out.

A month ago the Nittany Lions were very iffy propositions, as far as making the NCAA tournament was concerned. Now it appears they’ve played themselves in, regardless of what happens Sunday. And good for them.

Purdue, meanwhile, advanced to this conference tournament title tilt by beating Ohio State in the other semifinal Saturday 80-66. The Boilermakers actually fell down to the 13th-seeded Buckeyes 29-21 midway through the first half but rallied to lead 42-34 into the locker room. Purdue then never allowed Ohio State to get any closer than six points from there and pulled away late for the cover at -8.

The Boilers shot 48 percent from the floor Saturday, held the Buckeyes to 42 percent shooting and won the battle on the glass 38-27.

Purdue, with a double-bye, opened its Big 10 tournament with a 70-65 victory over Rutgers in the quarterfinals Friday but couldn’t quite cover at -6.5. The Boilermakers also won three of their last four regular-season games, so they’re 5-1 SU their last six times out. However, they’re also only 2-4 ATS over that span, three times favored by a bucket too much.

Purdue won the Big 10’s regular-season title by going 15-5 in conference play and it’s probably going to be a No. 1 seed for the upcoming NCAA tournament.

Penn State-Purdue Recent History

The Boilermakers own a 10-game winning streak against the Nittany Lions, going 9-0-1 ATS along the way. Purdue swept two games from Penn State this season by scores of 76-63 and 80-60, covering at -5 and -10.

Also, both those games slid over totals of 135, which just happens to be the total on Sunday’s game

Totals Report

The Overs are 20-13 in Penn State games this season, which are averaging 140 total points.

The Unders are 17-15 in Purdue games this season, which are averaging 136 points.

The Overs are 8-2 over the last 10 meetings between these teams.