The Blue Devils haven’t scored fewer than 75 points in a game this season and are unlikely to do so this week against a Florida team that allowed Gonzaga and Seton Hall to shoot a just under a combined 50%. The Gators have put up 77 points per game in their first 8 games, but didn’t shoot well against Zaga’s quality defense and meet another one tonight. We’re not getting the best of the line right now, but the value is still with Duke.

The point spread line has come down from its opener, but it still way higher than I’d ever lay. The Longhorns have yet to record a victory in their two neutral site games and will be playing their first true road game of the season. In the neutral court games Texas shot a feeble 37% from the field and may be in for more of the same tonight. Michigan can light up the board, but they’re not going well now scoring 67.6 points per game over their last five. The line is steaming to the OVER but I believe the other side is the right side of the total to be on tonight.

Old Dominion by no means should be taken lightly in this contest but unfortunately it seems that they are in fact being overlooked by the market. When players take back the points here, they take back a team that made it all the way to the 2016 Conference-USA Championship before being defeated by slim margins to the 2016 Men’s Basketball Tournament’s premier upset artist Middle Tennessee State. In addition, Old Dominion finished the 2015-16 campaign with 25 victories and a Vegas 16 Tournament Championship to boot. This match-up serves to be another situation that will further the trend of ranked teams being overvalued against perceived weaker foes. Old Dominion holds advantages over Rhode Island in both defense and rebounding and this is often a precursor for teams like ODU to take full advantage regardless of where the venue is taking place. The Monarchs stand to be the better team offered with substantial points which bodes tremendous value for anyone fancying a punt on ODU.

I’m going to simplify this. These two teams have played a common opponent in Fairfield. Rider dropped their match 76-67 while Siena was an 80-73 victor. Here is a key stat. The Broncos have lost all three games straight up and against the number in all three of their lines games. The Saints are a profitable 3-2 versus the line and while they are 0-5 SU as a visitor they are 3-0 ATS in lined games.

UConn just isn’t very good this season. Case in point would be their narrow 51-49 win over lowly Boston U in their latest. Syracuse hasn’t actually impressed this season away from home losing by 17 in Wisconsin and by 14 on neutral court to South Carolina. They have however five wins on the season and they’ve been able to extend their margin of victory in the majority of the wins.

The public play on this game is Mississippi State, but while I do think they’ll probably win I’m not much for playing “Follow the Leader”. The Panthers have played impressive defense so far this season holding opponents to 38.6 shooting. Miss State is certainly not an elite offense.

Georgia has yet to lose at home and catch Marquette who maybe feeling a little too good about themselves after knocking off inferior competition in three straight games. The Golden Eagles are also playing their first road game. Lay the small number.

The Cowboys play run and gun and their speed can be too much for many opponents to handle, but the Terrapins are not one those. Maryland hasn’t had a regulation time game go over today’s posted total line since back on March 11th when they beat Nebraska 97-86. The host is shooting a paltry 40% from the field this season so don’t look for them to light it up even against Oklahoma State’s loose defensive play.

The Zags in my opinion have had the tougher schedule and have two quality wins on their resume giving Florida their only loss on the season and knocking off a good Iowa State team. Gonzaga is in a triple revenge spot and shouldn’t let up. Lay the points.

The numbers here are all we need to make a prognostication in this one. San Diego State comes in shooting 38.4% from the field in contrast to the Ramblers who hit 48.7% of all field goals. This 10.3% margin can be a huge difference maker especially when you factor in the fact, the Aztecs are hovering in the mid-twenties in both field goal percentage and three-point shooting when they are away from San Diego. Loyola Chicago has taken on some excellent basketball teams already this year and still they remain unscathed in Chicago. This contest has all the makings of a trap game for the Aztecs and they should be extremely careful when they venture out to Chicago. The Ramblers could have easily taken down NC State in Raleigh had they not gone cold at the most inopportune time despite hitting over 50% from the field in the aforementioned fixture.

The current play of either team doesn't lend much confidence to making a point spread play, but the total looks interesting. The Longhorns have played solid defense allowing 39.6% from the field overall and a very impressive 36.4 at home. The Crimson Tide haven't impressed on offense this season averaging just 69.5 points per game and 61 per game on a neutral court. Texas did shoot well better at home in their four games averaging 76 points per game, but their recent scoring has been on the downside failing to score over 61 points in their last three including their last as a host.

Tulane is 1-6 on the season straight up and 1-3-1 against the spread, but they’ve played all but one of their games away or on a neutral court. The one game they did play at home was against lowly Southeastern Louisiana, but they get the easy victory winning by 16 in an unlined game. St. Johns has played a tougher schedule, but they’ve already had three home games and are 0-4 as a visitor or on a neutral court straight up. I’ll gladly take the points.

As we have highlighted previously, the Jacks have gone toe-to-toe with some heavyweights recently and showed no timidity. Whether it be Notre Dame in the Men’s Tournament or #1 Kentucky this season, this outfit has big game experience against premium competitors. While Arkansas may see the Jacks as a lowly competitor primed to be whacked at home, Stephen F. Austin has other ideas. This is a team that plays a physical and robust style of defense that affords them an opportunity to be in any game if they dictate control and pace.

Arkansas’ one loss this year was against a team that was heavily overvalued because of the strong start they got off to against weaker opponents, Minnesota. Bottom line, takers are backing on Arkansas’ home court hosting duties combined with the fact they are from a recognized conference, the SEC. The assumption here is that Arkansas is better than the Lumberjacks by default by virtue of conference alignments. This may in fact be true but the heavy steam rolling on the Hogs suggests that there may be a bit of an overreaction here. Stephen F. Austin has the full capability to come in to this contest undetected and come in under this lofty number, especially if they are taken lightly.

I’d be playing the Bearcats in this spot if Gary Clark was 100%, but he isn’t and even if he does play the ankle he is dealing with would limit his ability The Cyclones have looked solid this season with only a neutral site two point loss to Zaga as their only blemish. The Clark injury is big. Lay the points.

Sure Mississippi State has the better record, but neither club has impressed with soft schedules. The Bulldogs were an underwhelming 65-59 victor over lowly Northwestern State in their latest and it is apparent that they’re missing G Quinndary Weatherspoon and his 18.8 points per game. The visitor plus the points is the way to go in this game.

More often than not undefeated outfits ranked in the Top 10 are vulnerable to giving away more points than they should. Creighton is certainly susceptible to such an occurrence given their recent slew of victories. Nevertheless, despite owning one of America’s premiere offenses and the best three-point shooting team in the land, the Bluejays rank among the worst in offensive rebounds while posting medicore numbers in the free-throw and opponent three-ball percentage disciplines. Creighton is a team that lives and dies by draining treys from beyond the arc and given the amount of points on the table here this can be a dangerous venture against any opponent. Buffalo is strictly focused on their efforts in the defense and rebound departments. Buffalo ranks among the best in opponent field goal percentage (53rd) and they have proven to be one of the best in creating second chances as they are positioned 33rd nationally in offensive rebounds. The fact that Buffalo plays methodical defense and strong in the fundamentals allows them to match-up well with Creighton who is just a cold night away from being upset by a team that can take advantage of their deficiencies on the back-end. Don’t expect Buffalo to get rolled over in this contest by any stretch. This game will likely be a defensive-oriented battle which plays perfectly in to Buffalo's hands allowing them to keep this one within range.

The total line has edged lower, giving a play on the OVER more value in this spot. Rhode Island has held only lowly Marist and Dartmouth to below 71 points while scoring 76 or more in all but their game against Duke. Valparaiso has played some defense this season, but when facing a decent offense they’ve had the troubles.

Syracuse couldn’t put the ball in a swimming pool in their latest against South Carolina a very under-rated team this season. Wisconsin is the polar opposite of the Gamecocks with the Badgers over-rated going 1-3 against the line. I look for “Cuse to get back on track tonight with this game being decided late. The receiving side of the points is where you want to be tonight.

I find this total on the low side. Wake Forest has averaged 86.3 points per game and while they are allowing a mediocre 74.2 points per game, the number is skewed by the Charleston and Radford games. Excluding those contests moves that number to 81.5 per game. Northwestern has scored an average of 79.5 points per game and while they did only average 70.33 points per game in a trio of games against Notre Dame, Texas and Butler those teams defenses are in a different stratosphere than the Demon Deacons.

The Golden Gophers have yet to lose this season getting the “W” in all six games this season. They’ve been playing good defense allowing opponents 66.5 points per game on 36% shooting form the field. Their strategy tonight should be to slow this game down limiting the shooting opportunities of the Seminoles. Ask Tennessee and Illinois how that worked out for them.