Ohio State is 5-7 in conference games in cluded in that is a 2-4 mark on the road both straight up and against the spread. Scoring has been a problem in the Big Ten with the team averaging 70.9 points per game overall. In their conference road games the number drops further to 68.8 PPG. For today's game they will be without their best guard JaQuan Lyle who not only puts up 11.4 points per game, he leads the team in steals and assists. Maryland has road their defense to a strong 8-3 Big 10 mark allowing 67.91 PPG and should be able to imporove that number against a weakened Buckeyes team.

Sure Monmouth has been making easy work of fellow Metro Atlantic teams going 12-2 overall including 5-1 on the road. They have however gone just 2-4 versus the spread as a visitor. Also note that they haven't been extending the spread on the road winning by 7 or fewer points in three of their last four. Manhatten hasn't been brilliant at the Draddy Gymnasium winning just three of seven conference home games, but they have been playing better as of late going 3-2 over the last five. Monmouth won by 9 in the earlier match up on their home court making them an overlay in this spot.

The second and third placed Atlantic 10 teams will battle it out here. In the earlier meeting in Dayton the Flyers got the win and the money winning by 3 as a -1 home favorite. I think Rhode Island gets some revenge here. The Rams are 4-1 in conference play at home losing a shocker to La Salle which is their only home loss (11-1). Since that loss URI has won three straight home games with two over decent competition beating George Washington by 12 and St. Bonaventure by the same margin. Lay the points.

Harvard has an enviable point spread run in the Ivy League going 8-1-1 against the spread in their last 10 contests. However, the push and the loss came in their last four games. The Crimson are 4-2 in the conference, but all four wins have come against the bottom rung teams who have a combined record of 17-42 this season. Brown is just 2-4 in Ivy games this season, but five of the 6 games were on the road and included games against top conference teams Princeton and Yale. There lone home game came against Yale with the Bears losing by 1 point.

Oregon has gone 10-1 versus the conference this season including in that record is a home win over tonight's opponent. They're coming off maybe they're most impressive win of this campaign crushing a very good Arizona club 85-58 and bring a 9-2 against the spread mark into this contest. I think that may all be negative going into this game. A college team coming off a blowout win in a game against a quality opponent is usually a perfect fade situation. Also, Oregon barely got by UCLA in their previous game and you'd have to believe that the Bruins will be better here. The Ducks defense has been their strength but that wasn't the case against UCLA who shot a ridiculous 53.1% from the field and if not for a poor day from the charity stripe the result of the game may have been different.

The Mustangs have an enviable overall scoring defense allowing 58.6 points per game on 38.8 shooting, but the numbers on that metric slide to 61.2 points on 41.7 shooting. SMU has been ultra strong in AAC games going 10-1 straight up with an impressive ROI going 9-1-1 against the spread. They are 5-1 as a visitor in conference games and 5-0-1 ATS but four of the five games were against lower level AAC teams. Temple did lose by 14 on the road versus SMU, but they're a much better team at home. They've gone 3-2 as a host in their conference matches, losing by 6 to Cincinnati and by 2 to Tulsa.

Duke has won three straight including two on the road, but didn't impress in any of the victories or pad their backers' bankrolls going 0-2-1 against the spread. The same could be said about UNC who has looked very ordinary in their last three games going 2-1 straight up and 0-3 versus the betting line. The big seperation here is the Tar Heels road play. They are a mediocre 4-3 on the road this season and a terrible 1-6 against the spread. The Blue Devils while 4-1 as a host versus ACC teams, they haven't been a good bet going 1-4 ATS. That said they they did win the four games by a combined 84 points with the lowest margin being by 8, so Duke can extend the margin. It's difficult for me to back the Blue Devils as I do admittedly have a bias against the team, but they are the logical choice in this spot.

A few weeks ago we were targeting a Belmont club that was on the rise, which came in hot against this very Jacksonville State team in Nashville. We cited the Gamecocks ability to drain the three-ball as prime rationale to lay what seemed to be an extensive amount of points, be that such a strategy would likely keep them in the game and well under the number. Needless to say, Belmont won and did so decisively. Since then it’s been all academic for the Bruins.

Without question, the Bruins are hell-bent on emerging the champion of the Ohio Valley Conference and returning to the Big Dance, perhaps to make a bigger impact than many expect. Nevertheless, games like this can set up the Bruins for a humongous let-down. Belmont has won and covered decisively, yet in this scenario despite recent dominance, the price is far lower for Belmont than many would expect and as a result we have seen the heavy lean. We assure anyone that this is not a present. The market is assuredly sharp when it comes to Belmont (given their prominence in the mid-majors) and if anything takers are bearing a bigger price tag be that the stock on this team is undoubtedly through the roof. Belmont is undefeated in conference play and they have lost just two games on the road this season. However, J-State has pulled an outright upset as a 12-point underdog to kick off the 2016-17 season which means they should be taken seriously in this situation. They are just a five-point pooch for a reason.

I'm basing my handicap on the Indiana injury report. There has been rumbles about leading scorer guard James Blackmon Jr. returning and if that's the case that goes without saying that's a big deal for the Hoosiers' offense. Indiana F OG Anunoby has been lost for the season and his defense (21 steals, 21 blocks) will be missed more than his offense (11.1 PPG). Purdue's offense has been firing on all cylinders scoring an average of 79.6 points in conference games although the defense hasn't been allowing four more points on the road per game. On the road that number increases to 77.2 and with averaging 88.8 PPG at home this season and 110 (0T), 82, 76, 96, 68 and 83 in their six home conference games. It would be easy to forecast both clubs scoring into the 80's tonight and that's where my money is going to land.

After a great start to the New Year winning three consecutive Big Ten matches Minnesota has been in a slump losing five straight before notchinmg a big 68-59 road win over Illinois. That me be a turning point for the Gophers who didn't played that poorly during the losing streak with two close road losses and an overtime home loss to the Badgers. Their offense was the key factor in their losses surpassing 72 points in regulation just once in the five games. Tonight they host a team that has allowed an average of 83.7 points per game on 47.9 FG% shooting on the road this season winning just one of their six contests. Of the five losses four of them were by 12 or more points suggesting that Minnesota could extend the margin here.

In the last four years this series has an UNDER trend with 7 of the 10 matches ending below the closing total line. I beleive that the trend will be a little less dominant after tonight's game. Virginia Tech's scoring numbers have fallen from their seasonal average of 79.6 points, but that number is skewed by the 49 they put up against Virginia on the road in their latest. UVA is an entirely different animal than most team and the 49 points was just five under their current average. Miami has been strong defensively at home this season allowing 61.9 points per game but the last four home games against conference foes show a different number for that metric of 70.2 PPG. On the other side of the court the Hurricanes have averaged 75.2 points per game at the Watsco Center and have reached over that number in three of their five ACC home games and that number should be attainable tonight against a Hokies team that has allowed 85 PPG on the road this season and 80.40 in conference play.

Baylor comes into this game with the 7th ranked scoring defense in the nation allowing 61.8 points per game and they've carried that efficiency in conference play allowing 63.40 per game and while the metric does increase on the road, they do still have a strong number of 68.0 PPG. Oklahoma State has won five in a row and that's mainly because of their defense. They've allowed 70.4 PPG over the five games which is 7.3 fewer than their season average.

The Rebels are coming off of a solid 81-74 road win win over Vandy and have won two in a row, but they weren't overly impressive in either game. Ole Miss did win the earlier match-up at home against Tennessee, but the offensive output was not the norm for the Rebels or for the Vols defense. Tennessee lost the battle of the boards decisively 43-34 in that game which is unlikely to be the case in this time around or the 35.2% from the field and 24% from 3-pt land. I'll lay the points on the home side.

It seems the market may finally be beginning to catch up with the Rams. Earlier this season Colorado State was offered as 13.5 point underdog when they went to Boulder to face their arch rival Colorado. The public was laying the Rams and nevertheless State would defeat the Buffs by a fourteen point margin. Just a few weeks ago, this same situation materialized when Colorado State was entering in to a road clash with Utah State as a minor underdog and once again the public was against the Rams and they would defeat the Aggies convincingly. On another note, Colorado State since then has also knocked off San Diego State as an 8.5-point road underdog as well, so needless to say the stock on this time is on the rise and the market was not astute. However, it is safe to say here and now the market is finally beginning to abreast and adept of how potent this Rams team truly is. As a direct result, the public is now buying in and likely overreacting to the previous result between these two, a couple weeks ago.

What this essentially purvey is an age-old dilemma where the public continuously finds itself backing the wrong side. The presiding reaction is to sell Utah State and buy Colorado State. Although the Rams defeated the Aggies in Logan by eight points, the market is giving away three points less to Aggies takers which should indicate that there is a lack of faith, a similar result can be fostered yet again even if it is on their own court. Look for the Aggies to hang around.

Both of these clubs come into this on a downward trend with Butler losing two straight at home with a 10-point loss to Creighton and a 4-point loss to Georgetown. The two losses dropped their Big East record to 7-4 on the season. Marquette did get the "W" in their latest an easy road win over lowly DePaul, but that broke off a two game losing streak with a road loss to St. John's (86-72) and a narrow home loss to Providence (79-78). So here's where my head is. The Golden Eagles only conference home loss was the game against the Friars losing by 1 as an 8-point favorite. That loss could have easily been forecasted after a HUGE win over Villanova in their previous game they came out flat and trailed Providence by 8 at the half. I look for Marquette to avenge their earlier 8-point road loss to Butler with a win and a point spread cover.

Clemson stunk the place out on Super Bowl Sunday losing by 48 to the Seminoles. They've played some close ACC games at home, but couldn't do enough to get the win resulting in a 1-4 straight up record at home . They play a Syracuse team who is a poor 1-5 on the road this season winning their lone game on the road in overtime at NC State. Their defense has been appalling on the road giving up 80.5 points per game on a ridiculous 51.3 FG%. Clemson's last three home losses have been by 1 to VT, 4 to UVA and by 3 in OT to UNC. I think they get it done in a big way against an opponent whose last three road losses have been by 10 or more points.

When these two teams played back on January 14th at the end of regulation time the score was knotted at 67-67 for a combined total of 134 points. Florida has played exceptional defense ranking 42nd in the nation in scoring defense allowing a miserly 65.6 points per game. There defense has been especiall stingy in overt their last three games holding the opposition to an average of 57.3 points including holding Kentucky to 24 points under their average seasonal PPG scoring. Georgia has allowed 68.9 points per game overall and that number increases in conference play to 72.2, but keep in mind that two of those matches went to overtime increasing the metric. Removing the points from the extra frames gives us 69.9 PPG allowed in regulation time in SEC games giving more value to a total play.

I'm going to go the square route on this game. The Terrapins are 5-0 on the road in Big Ten play with wins over some of the better clubs in the conference. They were the dog in those game helping them to a 7-0-1 against the spread streak. That would have inflated the spread here, but I believe that there's still value at the current line. Penn State is on a 1-5 SU run in conference games beating only lowly Illinois who is 0-5 on the road against conference foes.

Kansas State played Kansas really tough at home back on January 3rd, losing by just two points. The 178 combined points scored in the earlier match scorched the 139 point closing line which has made for an over reaction by the linesmaker on the total line. Both teams connected on over 50% of their shots from the field which is unlikely to be repeated in this go around. The Kansas offenses in this role has averaged a 45.8 FG% while Kansas State has averaged 43.8 % so to think that we have a drop off this game is not a reach. Also, the defensive scoring numbers suggest a lower scoring game, with the Jayhawks scoring defense having allowed 72.2 points per game on the road while the Wildcats have held opponents as a host to 63.7 points.

St. Peter's has lost back to back games, but the losses were in overtime and they were dogs in both games. Their recent games on thew whole are positive going 6-4 straight up but 8-2 against the spread. The four losses were by a combined 9 points and in three of the games they were getting points and covered all three. That's not the case here as they are laying three and are at home. They have won four of five conference home games and did get the cover in three of the four victories. Canisius has played a substantial amount of road games, and they do have an above .500 record as a true road favorite, but they're just 3-4 SU on the road versus Metro Atlantic Athletic teams and are 2-3 ATS in their last five. The Peacocks won both meetings last season also getting the spread win and i see no reason to not beleive that will happen again.