This is a tough game to call at first glance with Georgia Southern's exceptional home record. The Eagles are 10-1 overall at home and a perfect 7-0 in conference play. That said, two things that stand out when you dig into the numbers. Georgian Southern has hosted primarily the lower level Sun Belt teams and haven't been dominate in most matches. Sure they did beat a decent Georgia State team by 23 but that came back in December. They're only 4-3 against the spread in the seven conference home matches and barely got by Texas State in their latest a team that the Mavericks crushed by 15. UTA is 8-1 in their last 9 matches with trhe only loss being by two points.

I like the Gophers here. Minnesota hasn't been dominate in their last four games, but they did the money in all four matches. They're 14-3 at home with two of the losses coming in overtime. Tonight they host a Michigan team that have beaten just one conference team (1-4) on the road where they allow an embarrassing 52.7 FG% and a 45.8 3-PT%.

Syracuse has played OK in recent games despite losing their last two extending Louisville to overime before falling by four and losing on the road to a suddenly hot Pittsburgh team by five. On the road has been a problem for the Orange with an embarrasing 2-8 record including 2-6 in true road games. Georgia Texh comes into this game losers of three of five, however the three losses were on the road and their road record is directr mirror of Syracuse going 2-8. At home is a different story. The Yellow Jackets have won 13 of 16 games and have won 5 of their 6 conference home games. The five victories include wins over top level ACC opponents in Florida State, Notre Dame and North Carolina.

UConn easily dispatched Temple by 14 points back in January at home and can repeat that feat today. The Owls are a medicore 8-5 this season as a host and a poor 3-3 in conference games in that role. The Huskies are 2-4 as a visitor in the AAC, but have won two of their last three beating a decent UCF by three in their last conference road game. They come into this game on a 6-1 run losinmg only to the Bearcats on the road.

Creighton hasn't played well since losing guard Maurice Watson Jr. going 3-4 straight up which included a 20 point road loss to the Hoyas. Georgetown hasn't impressed on the road with their sub record of 3-4 but they have won two of their last three with a big four point win over Butler as an +8.5 dog.

Short Analysis: Virginia is in a tailspin losing three of their last four including two road games against moderate conference competition. The Tar Heels are 6-0 as a host in ACC matches winning five of the six games by 7 or more points which would get it done here.

What we have here is a likely public overreaction garnered from a quick glance at the records of both teams in this contest and deriving conclusions off this alone. Nevertheless, the combined road record of Missouri State with the formidable home record of Drake is something worth weighing in to consideration. Furthermore, these two teams are separated by just a game in conference play as the Bulldogs own a 5-10 MVC record compared to Missouri State’s 6-9 league record. Missouri State comes in off a bitter defeat against Illinois State where they fell to the Redbirds, a few days ago. Illinois State has emerged as a contender for the Missouri Valley Conference and furthermore has been penciled in as a team to make an appearance at March Madness given their impressive portfolio of performances and eyebrow-raising record. The prevailing proposition and assumption is that the Bears can rebound and get off their four-game skid after showing they can hang with a quality opponent. However, this could be rather presumptuous. Drake will enter this match with heightened confidence fully aware that they know how to defeat this club as they have already done so this season. As a result, the Bulldogs will likely enter this game with an emotional edge and given the fact it is at home no less, Missouri State may find themselves in a load of trouble contrary to popular opinion.

This game to me comes down to whether or not Xavier G Trevon Bluiett is ready to return after missing the last two games. The Musketeers already lost starting G Edmond Sumner for the season and they just don't have the depth to replace both guards. The stats can back this up with Xavier scoring 57 versus Villanova and 63 to Providence in their last two both losses. I'm going nto go on the premise that Blueitt isn't going to play making this and that situation calls for a play on the UNDER.

It's tough to make an arguement for Houston in this game. Sure the Cougars have won five straight, but they beat lower level conference teams with the best win in the streak against UCF who is 6-7 in the conference. They were crushed by the Mustangs on the road by 21 points and while Houston should be better at home, SMU doesn't fall off much on the road. The Mustangs have yet to lose a spread decision on the road going 6-0-1 ATS and 6-1 against the AAC with the lone loss by 2 points against the Bearcats.

Kentucky has been playing superior defense in their last two games holding both Tennessee at home and Alabama on the road to 58 points. However, their defense hasn't always been a strength on the road allowing over 80 ponts in four of the other five road tilts and 76 or more in all five. UK's offense has been strong in conference play averaging 86.9 points in their 12 SEC games. Georgia can be shut down scoring 60 or fewer in three of their last four home games, but they did put up 76 against Kentucky on the road in their earlier meeting and anything near that number should send over bettors to the windows.

The Cardinal has just one win in their last six Pac-12 games, but keep in mind that four of the six came on the road including an 11-point loss to Cal and they did win one of the two home games in that stretch. They're on a 3-1 streak at home in their last four and could come up with a big one tonight. Cal is only 3-3 straight up on the road in conference games and may ripe for the picking in this spot.

Both of these clubs have sharp record in conference action with the VCU going 10-2 and Richmond 9-3. The Rams did win the earlier match-up at home by 7, but in this role though the Spiders have the edge. Richomn has lost just one game at home in Atlantic 10 play losing to George Washington by 5 in a game that the Spiders shot just 36.2 from the field. That's not likely to happen against the Rams who have allowed opponents a 40.7 FG% and 37.5 FG% on the road. It's not a stretch to think that the home side could get the outright win making this a strong value play.

The Golden Grizzlies are on a nice run four consecutive wins including three straight on the road, but they've struggled at home losing three of their last four and these weren't to the Horizon League's top clubs. Oakland won the earlier match on the road to Valpo, but the visitor has a good shot and evening the score tonight. The Crusaders are 4-1 on the road in conference play and forecast them to improve that to 5-1 after this match.

The visiting Golden Flashes have played adequately in MAC road games going 3-3 straight up and 2-3-1 versus the line. That's all good and all that, but they haven't played much on the road with their only quality conference road game being against Ohio where they were rocked 85-67. A closer look at the boxscore shows that the Bobcats likely took the peddle off the metal in the second half going into halftime with a 17 point lead. The Zips don't always extend the margin winning their last three as a host by a combined 9 points and are on a nasty 1-5 ATS streak leading. Close your eyes and hit the bet button.

It’s a rare situation when you get a chance to take back a conference leader with points. When the opportunity emerges in situations like this, it screams value. Normally we would have trepidation about going anywhere near Davis, given the fact they are currently slated in many brackets as the declared Big West winner and representative for March Madness. As a result of this, we have faded Davis in the past because of the vulnerability this team has for overreactions and inflated points. However, in this situation the opposite may have happened and the Aggies may actually be undervalued. In four of five major defensive statistical categories, Long Beach State are ranked in the mid to low 300’s. This sample includes, opponent field goal percentage, opponent three-point field goal percentage, opponent points per game and opponent free throw percentage. This is a club that is also stronger in the rebound department and commit less turnovers compared to Long Beach State. This is the true difference maker between the two teams. UC Davis is likely one of the most improved basketball teams in all of America and Long Beach State should beware be that this is a club with a solid chance of winning the Big West as expected.

Memphis' overall record is impressive and they do have a positive 8-5 AAC conference record, but are only 3-3 on the road. Their three wins include two wins over the bottom feeding South Florida and Tulane. UConn is just 7-5 in AAC games, but are 5-1 at home and have matched that number in their last six overall. Connecticut won by 14 last season as a 14-point home favorite over Memphis last season and I look for mor of the same tonight.

Backing the Utes on the point spread line in Pac-12 games has been a been a profitable wager this season with Utah going 8-4-1. However, they're just 2-4 in their last six conference games after opener their schedule with six straight covers. Oregon was off just a little against UCLA which was expected after their big win in the previous game over Arizona. They responded nicely in their latest against USC rolling to an 11-point road win. They return home where they are 15-0 overall ands 7-0 straight up in conference action covering the spread in six of the seven matches. The ducks have outscored the opposition by 20 points per game in home games and have won by 17 points or more in five of the victories.

I'm going to take a shot on the visitor here. The overall shooting numbers favor the Aggies and the level of the competition that Texas A&M has faced dwarfs the cupcake schedule of Vanderbilt. The Commodores just shouldn't be laying points here. They're 1-4 straight up in SEC home games and while the Aggies are 2-4 in road conference games they have played all three of the top SEC teams (Kentucky, Florida and South Carolina).

Wisconsin is 10-2 in the Big Ten with identical 5-1 records at home and against the spread. That said, they haven't been playing their best ball in their last two barely getting by Nebraska in overtime on the road and losing straight up at home to an undermanned Northwestern team. Michigan has been up and down this season, but they've stepped it up big time in their last two easily dispatching Indiana on the road and destroying Michigan State at home. They catch Wisconsin on a downturn and are the play here.

Duke has been on a roll stringing together five straight games over ACC competitors, but three of the games were at home and while Notre Dame and Wake Forest are good clubs playing them on the road is not the same as what they'll face tonight. The Cavaliers should be fully motivated after dropping their latest in double overtime against the Hokies and looking to avenge last season's one point loss to the Blue Devils. The five point handicap may scare some away from this game, but I'm confident in them being able to pull away. UVA is 4-1 at home against conference foes with each of the four wins being by 13 or more points. Duke is 3-3 on the road this season and all three losses have come in ACC games with the lowest margin being 9 points.