Both teams come into this game on a roll with Nevada and Iowa State winners of nine of their last ten. The strength of Iowa State is their three point shooting and that is what they rode to a Big 12 title. On the season on a neutral court they’re 6-1 losing only to a very good Gonzaga team by two points. That said, Nevada has defended the three well holding the opposition to a 31.3% on neutral courts and 30.7. THe Cyclones were sky high after taking the title and I think they may come out a little flat in their tournament opener which would lead me to believe that the Wolf Pack can stay within the ISU handicap.

VCU played four non conference games on neutral courts and while they did go 2-2 both straight up and against the spread when they were in the underdog role they lost both matches. St. Mary’s lost four games this season, but keep in mind that three of them came against the Gonzaga. In other words the Gaels went 28-1 in games not involving 'Zaga going 16-8-2 versus the betting line.

The Razorbacks were on a roll before the SEC tourney winners of five of their previous six games. They carried that play in the tourney taking their first two games before falling to Kentucky in the final. That’s all and good, but one thing stands out with this team and ity’s their ability to beat top notch competition. Arkansas went a poor 0-5 against teams with a top 25 RPI. Seton Hall wasn’t much better going 1-4 they were in most of their games winning over Butler on the road by 6, losing to Villanova by 2 on a neutral court in the Big East final and by 5 on a NC against Florida. In comparison Arkansas’ closest losing margin was by 9 to Florida at home.

Can Michigan stay on their high from the Big Ten tournament title win or will that fade? I’m going to go with the Wolverines continuing their outstanding play. They catch a break facing an Oklahoma St. team who is not paying their best basketball at this time.Losers of three straight and while the competition was strong they’re just one point away from being on a 0-3 ATS streak. Michigan has been brilliant on neutral courts going 6-0 not only winning all four conference tournament games but also getting the victory and the money over SMU and Marquette. Go Blue!

I was on the wrong side of the Badgers loss to the Wolverines and in hindsight I have should have put some weight into Michigan being on a mission since their plane mishap. The Hokies are not the Wolverines, but they can certainly shoot the three ball with a 13th ranked 40.3% shooting and that number has been replicated on neutral courts. The three point defense was a big problem for Wisconsin in the Michigan game with the Wolverines draining ten on 43.5% shooting and in fact in their last four losses they have allowed opponents to shoot greater than 40% from behind the arc. My money is on the live dog here.

Two teams that have been on a downward spiral who both possess losing records over their last ten contests. Xavier did beat Butler in the second round of their conference tourney, but they the only other wins in their last ten games came against the bottom feeding DePaul. Maryland’s recent play is similar going 2-4 in their last six beating a fading Michigan State by three and a victory over lowly Rutgers. So, a side play would be like flipping a coin. The total is a different story. The Musketeers have scored 72 or more points in five of the past six and while they have allowed fewer than 65 in three of their last four two of those games against offensively challenged Blue Demons and before that their opponents scored 71 or more points in six consecutive games. Maryland when tasked with playing defense against some of the better scoring squads from the Big Ten have allowed 70 or more points per game in eight straight. I have this game at 146.

Northwestern played well early in the season crushing Texas (77-58), losing a close one to Notre Dame (70-66) and knocking off Dayton (67-64) in their three non-conference games on a neutral court. Defense was their strength allowing an average of 64 points per game in the three matches and they’ve performed close to that level in all of their neutral site games allowing 65.5 PPG. . Their record since February is just 5-7 as their scoring has plummeted failing to score 70 or more points in ten of the twelve games and they face defensive minded Vanderbilt in the opener. The Commodores have allowed in the 70’s against some of the top scoring SEC teams, but note that they’ve have held nine consecutive opponents to fewer PPG than their seasonal average.

Sure the Blue Raiders can shoot the ball well and have been outstanding in neutral site games with a 51.1FG% and a 38.8 3-PT %, but who have they played? On the season they have the 167th ranked schedule compared to the 17th ranked schedule of the Gophers. However, you can’t penalize a team for their schedule and while their conference is not top level they did play a tough non-conference schedule ranking 19th in RPI. Also, Middle Tennessee State has very good numbers against top RPI teams going 0-1 against top 25 teams with their 80-77 loss to VCU, 2-0 versus 26-50 ranked RPI teams and 2-0 against 51-100.

The Crimson Tide has gone 11-5 at home this season, but as the competition level increased for their SEC games they went just 6-4 stright up and 4-6 versus the spread. In comes the Spiders who went a moderate 7-5 straight up on the road this season, but were a bankroll padding 8-3 ATS. This is just too many points to lay.

These two teams contrast greatly in their approach toward the game. For instance, Wake Forest is an offense-first team as they own the 16th ranked offensive in America in terms of scoring (82.7 points per game). The Deacons are also excellent three-point shooters as they hit 38.7% of their attempts. Nevertheless, Wake Forest owns the 301st ranked scoring defense in the land and likely this is what has made them a bubble team as opposed to an ACC contender, as they have given up 95 points or more in their previous three losses. Kansas State employs a defense-first approach as they feature the 56th ranked scoring defense in the offensive-oriented Big 12. K-State’s methodologies landed them in the Big 12 Championship where they narrowly fell to a #4 seed in March Madness, West Virginia. Kansas State has some signature wins to bolster their resume this season, including Baylor, West Virginia (regular season), Texas and Green Bay. This club lost to Kansas in both encounters by a combined margin of five points. Kansas State is a very talented basketball team and is extremely dangerous off the radar. This is a team that can make a deep run in to the tournament, let alone win in this play-in scenario.

Charleston has an impressive road record going 10-4 as a visitor with one of the losses coming against Villanova, one in the Colonial Athletic Conference final and one coming in overtime. Colorado State has been on a roll going 12-3 in their last 15 games with two of the defeats coming against Mountain West Champion Nevada. That said, I prefer taking the points here. The Cougars have shot better and defended better in their last five, have the lower RPI and like their SU record are 10-4 ATS in true road team.

The sharp money appears to be coming in on Georgia Tech, but I think that Indiana can get it done here. They went through a bit of a slump as James Blackmon Jr was trying to get his game back and at the same time that they were playing some of the stronger Big Ten teams, but Indiana certainly didn’t embarrass themselves over that stretch. The Yellow Jackets have one one of their last four and that came against a mediocre Panthers team.

The Fighting Illini dropped their last two which came on the back of a four game winning streak that saw them beat some decent Big Ten clubs. Illinois catches a Valpo team who has lost two straight and is missing their top scorer forward Alec Peters who had averaged 23 points and 10 boards per game this season. The Crusaders defense doesn’t travel well allowing 72.7 points per game on 44.4 FG% shooting. This is a big line so go easy on this.

Short and sweet. The only loss in the last 25 games that the Mustangs have lost was to Cincinnati who squeaked out a two point home win. SMU won by 9 at home and all signs point to a win and cover today.

These two teams split their two games this season with each team getting the W at home. In the loss the Badgers shot a pathetic 38.3% from the field and 18.8% from behind the arc. Even the most bias analysis couldn’t predict a repeat of those numbers today. Wisconsin is playing brilliant defense right now holding opponents to 60 or fewer points in the last four and are worthy of the favoritism in this match.

Both teams are undefeated on neutral courts with Texas State holders of a 4-0 record and Troy 5-0. Texas State won both matches this season winning by four at home on the road and at home. That said, this is too difficult of a game to take a side on, but the total looks good. The Trojans and the Bobcats have been playing fantastic defense with Troy allowing 64 or fewer points in three of their last four and Texas State allowing 65 or fewer in five of the last six.

The Razorbacks are 4-0 on neutral courts and are on a roll winning eight of their last nine. However, when they lose they tend to lose by a bunch with five of their last seven losses being by greater than today’s spread. Kentucky won by 14 on the road and 16 at home which would suggest a winning margin in that range this time around.

Marshall was easily dispatched in two games against Middle Tennessee State this season losing by 11 at home and 12 on the road. MTU has won their last three by double digits and seven of their last nine so it's not like they can’t extend the margin. The Thundering Herd’s bench can not keep up with the scoring of the Blue Raiders’ bench.

Sure Yale has turned it around breaking off a four game losing streak with a three game victory streak, but they didn’t beat much. Harvard has dropped two straight, but they lost a real tough against the Ivy League’s top club Princeton on the road a game that was tied inside of a minute left then travelled to Penn to play the next night and came up flat as expected against a decent Penn team. The Crimson won the first two matches this season and I project a third coming tonight.

UCF has played extremely well on neutral courts this season going 3-1 straight up and getting the money in all four contests. They didn’t play the doormats of the NCAA beating Mississippi State, Charleston and their opening game in the tourney they destroyed Memphis by 30 points. The single loss came against Villanova where they lost by 10 but got the money as a 16 point dog. SMU took both games this season, but the Knights played the Mustangs tough at home losing by five and can easily keep this within the assigned line today.