Despite, winning outright as a ten-point road pooch, once again we have Philadelphia where we want them. The Sixers could be spotting points here and undoubtedly the win at Denver has reduced their take back when you consider Minnesota limps in off a home loss. We have a chance to now take the Sixers with points as a result of what many may construe as an opportunity for Minnesota to bounce back and dust off the loss, we have dissenting opinions. The win for Philadelphia on the road at Denver could their signature win this season and may spark a rally for the Sixers who may be playing for pride more than anything else at this point. We have targeted teams all week that have been subjected to overreactions and undoubtedly the philosophy here is that a Minnesota team that routs Milwaukee and beats Atlanta handily would be able to take care of Philly. However, we are playing percentages here and given the fact Philly has won over 50% of their games at home while Minnesota has lost over 50% of their games this year on the road, we have to like our spot here with the points.

What we have here is again a continuation of a motif of the “buy-back” situation. To reinforce this, we laid Chicago at home hosting Milwaukee on New Year’s Eve as a home favorite and the Bucks rolled the Bulls. Now, the stock in the Bulls has been depleted and essentially we can take them back at a better number as a result of the New Year’s festivities outcome and the corresponding public overreaction. As we have highlighted previously, Charlotte has the upper hand against this outfit as of recent, encouraging compulsion towards Queen City in this scenario. As a result of the consensus taking those points in abundance in the early going, we now get Chicago at a reduced price. In cases of reactions such as this, a contrarian angle is often quite profitable. Charlotte’s home loss against Cleveland (the defending champion and best team in the East) according to public perception is easier to dismiss compared to Chicago being routed by a .500 team such as Milwaukee. This is certainly understandable but nevertheless we must frequent the fact that Milwaukee has had the recipe for success against this Chicago unit all season long and yet no one wanted a part of them. Now we see, Charlotte entering in a situation where they seem like the quality play with points as well, setting them up perfectly for a let-down.

What we have here is what we like to call essentially a “buy-back” situation. To define this, we laid Milwaukee yesterday as a road favorite and the Bucks were smoked by the T’Wolves. Now, the stock in the Bucks has been depleted and essentially we can take them back at a better number as a result of last night’s outcome. As we have highlighted previously, Milwaukee has already “been there and done that” with this Chicago team as they trounced them on their own court just over two weeks ago. The Deers have had the upper hand all-season long and despite this, the Bulls are spotting them the points yet again. Likely this could still be the after effects of the Bulls defeating San Antonio at the United Center, handing the Spurs their first road loss this season. However, the fact remains the Bulls are spotting points to a team that has proven they can have their way with them and we have to like that situation going in to this contest with points. While it is tempting to take the Deers on the Money Line, we will play this one conservative as markets are prone to be extra sharp after Milwaukee has been 2-0 ATS this year in their two victories against the Bulls.

The result at Detroit is bound to foster an overreaction as Milwaukee sparkled in their dominant defeat of the Pistons. With this being said, Milwaukee has performed contrarian to what was expected as they have had many woes away from home all season long. For Minnesota losing three of their last four is bound to deplete the stock of this outfit even if they are playing good basketball. The Minnesota dominance of Atlanta raised plenty of attention and it undoubtedly short-priced the Wolves as a road pooch where they covered yet again. This market is no farce, it is playing on the psychology that the victory in Detroit is bound to foster and as a result we have seen this market crash down to a point where we no longer need to lay points on a home team that likely has home court advantage. Minnesota is 2-2 in their previous four at home and even when they fell it was by no more than four points and overtime was required in one of them as Houston had their hands full against this scrappy team. Given Milwaukee’s tendencies and the recent win they are all the more prone for a let-down and we will not take part in that by any means.

We have seen Phoenix in this position before playing host against a team coming in off a hard fought loss the night before, Phoenix would lay an egg. One of the sharper sportsbooks in the industry has priced Toronto a half of a point more than the trending number in this market and we have to believe that the number is accurate. Given the fact we can potentially buy Toronto for a half of a point less, suggests that this favorite has tremendous quality spotting the points. The Suns are 9-23 because their defense cannot hold leads and they can’t finish games. Phoenix can score as good as any team but they also give as many points as they score and more often than not if you shut down their offense, you have already won the game. Regardless of the facts, Toronto owns the #3 offense in the NBA in all major statistical categories (field goal percentage, three-point field goal percentage, free throw percentage and points per game). We have already highlighted the porous defense that Phoenix owns so what we can infer is that the Suns will not be able to stop the Raptors even if they are the fresher team curating the hosting duties. Instead of taking Phoenix like we have, this is the perfect time to go the other way and lay the home points.

The Nuggets are a team that can be exceptionally dangerous on any given night given their offensive potency. This team has a plethora of talent and while Minnesota may have plenty of weapons in their arsenal, they may not be able to quell the onslaught of Mudiay, Barton and Gallinari. The Nuggets victory at Los Angeles did not generate some form of a reaction as it normally would, by virtue of the fact Lob City was nicked up. Conversely, the Minnesota dominance of Atlanta raised plenty of eyebrows. The Clippers at one point had the best record in the NBA but that was not the team Denver faced. Blake Griffin and Chris Paul were injured and Denver faced a much lighter version of the Clippers and as a result were expected to win. Denver did so but failed to cover by half of a point. This is likely a compelling narrative in this market. In certain instances we get an opportunity to take back a short-priced favorite which in turn bodes tremendous value. The situation taking shape here with the Nuggets is exactly that and we will go ahead and dive in while we can.

Very simply we are in a position here to get Cleveland at a remarkable price. We will take that position every time considering we are getting the defending NBA Champions at home at a reduced price tag. Why? Because very simply the Warriors are on the road at Cleveland where the Cavs have been dominant. King James and his merry men need no introduction but given the fact the Cavs used their home court advantage as an opportunity to get back in to this series last year when all the chips were down, Cleveland at a reduced price would have been a good play. We get them at a remarkable wage. We will go ahead and fade the public and many enamored perspectives on the Warriors featuring the likes of Kevin Durant, Steph Curry and Draymond Green and take back the defending champs who have lost just twice at home with enhanced points.

We have seen Memphis in the situation before against the Golden State Warriors when they came to town earlier this month. Not only would Memphis would cover as a 10.5 point home pooch, they would win the game outright. The Grizzlies are known as mentioned previously for a robust home court advantage. This team features some personnel that can simply get in Houston’s face and absolutely upset their dynamic offense. Pat Beverley better take notes. The Rockets have some chinks in the armor and they are poor against teams that love the three-ball. The bad news is that’s not Memphis’ cup of tea. But the Grizzlies can assuredly intimidate any team that loves to play a finesse style of basketball like Houston does. They shut down Golden State and they own a defense that ranks in the top-three or better in all major defensive categories. Memphis is more or a less a no-superstar team and they buy in to a philosophy. The game plan is simple defense wins games and this is a bit of anomaly as it is making other teams play outside of their strategy. Memphis has the full capability to be in any game they enter because they keep the scoring to a minimum. Though Houston has been dominant their offense has carried them. The Rockets should enter the FedEx Forum on upset alert.

Very rarely do we get a chance to take the Clippers without an inflated point spread, when we do we have to take that opportunity as it is likely the opponent which is driving that market narrative. San Antonio given their name, their pedigree and their routine success are almost always prone to be giving away more points than they should. In a rare case against Houston, the Spurs were the dog despite the amazing road record and the incredible portfolio of performances away from the Alamodome.

As a pooch San Antonio yielded dividends and now much of the public is on board with this outfit as they are yet again away from home against one of the best basketball teams in all the league. Los Angeles at one point was the top dog of the Western Conference in terms of wins and losses but this outfit has suffered some nasty hiccups away from the City of Angels. The good news here is that the Clippers get the Spurs on their own court and Los Angeles is 10-4 at home this season. Given the fact there is no points to spot here, tremendous value with Lob City.

The Suns are 8-20 because their defense cannot hold leads allow this unit to finish games. Phoenix can score as good as any team but they also surrender a fair amount of points in the process. The fact of the matter remains in Western Conference games, the outcome remains unpredictable due to the potency of many offenses across this conference. Houston has smacked teams at will for the most part of recent. Their offense has been electric and their defense has more or less stymied everyone they have come across. As a result, the stock in Houston is through the ceiling in light of their recent successes. Regardless of whether Houston won or lost last night, the fact remains much of the public are still bound to turn the corner on the Suns by virtue of the perceived quality of both teams. Nevertheless, the Suns enter this game as the fresher team playing this one at home while the Rockets are coming in to town off work from last night. The Rockets are more prone to being sluggish and all it takes is an off night for any team to take advantage and light up the scoreboard. That angle in itself is worth taking and given the fact we get point and a high-powered offense.

Once again we have Philadelphia where we want them. We have a chance to now take the Sixers with points after they failed to cover as a favorite in the previous two contests they were involved in. What we have here is a buy-back opportunity against a basketball team that has struggled mightily on the road. New Orleans by no means should be spotting points on the road to any team, even Philadelphia with their many deficiencies. New Orleans’s defense will certainly give Philadelphia opportunities to maximize their production. This is a 76ers team that comes in off of a 108-point performance, so needless to say here the Sixers have a game plan that may yield dividends for them against defenses that are not so ferocious. The test of course is rooted in quelling Anthony Davis and his presence on the court is likely the driving force behind this market when you combine it with the perception he can go off on the 76ers. However, despite Davis’ dominance, the Pelicans still cannot find ways to win. We will go ahead and be bold here and call for the Sixers to win this one outright, erasing any juice while affording us an above-even returns here. Philadelphia outright is the call.

Chicago was the team that snapped the San Antonio Spurs’ undefeated road winning streak. Now, they have an opportunity to exploit a Detroit team that stands at 6-10 on the road this year. These are the notions likely fueling this market from a consensus angle. Currently, the Bulls have hit a rough patch but a win here is certainly attainable, given the fact the Pistons have documented difficulties away from home. Had Chicago not been on a skid of their own recently, they would be spotting even more points to Detroit. The Pistons even with their recent successes against Chicago are still a pooch and we have to like that situation with respect to the potential value in the take-back. Detroit has the rubric to win against this outfit. We will go ahead and fade the public who seem to be enamored laying with the points in this one. Points with less juice is often a great value play.

To many, taking any team against the Sixers with points seems like a viable option. When the Sixers have been smothered by most of the public, it immediately stirs alerts by virtue of the fact no one ever wants to touch them. Either the price is too good or their opponent is perceived as short-priced. Brooklyn has just one road win this year, but they came in to the contest in similar capacity against the Phoenix Suns. Philadelphia was only able to score 89 points against a team that had given up 116 points or more in four of their last five previously. Philly’s stock was bound to crash after they were soundly defeated by Toronto at home previous to the Lakers contest. The Sixers are once again favored despite the Lakers beating them handily as well. What this does is allow us a true value opportunity to play on the Nets as the Sixers can clearly not be trusted as a favorite.

What we have here is what could be likened to a shootout in football. The forecast suggests that the Warriors and Blazers will score in ridiculous amounts. The amount of points in the Over/Under implies that both teams to are bound to eclipse 110 points each. With this narrative being established, it is prudent to take the copious number of points in this scenario. Overall, it is expected for the Warriors to be a trendy play be that they set records in 2015 and have an all-star ensemble of personnel. Portland enters in a perfect buy-back scenario as they were recently smoked by the Denver Nuggets on the road. The Blazers entered as marginal pooches and the consensus placed their faith in them to have it shattered. Golden State continues to win so what we have here is a buy-low, sell-high situation potentially coming to fruition. The Trailblazers have the firepower to certainly keep this one within range if not they can certainly foster a backdoor cover if this one gets out of hand and Golden State calls off the dogs.

To many, taking any team against the Sixers with points seems like a viable option. However, it is once again the 76ers who offer tremendous upside because as we have highlighted in many instances because no one wants a piece of them. When you see Philly priced here as a favorite that comes with reluctance as almost all will lay Philadelphia in this game but it indicates how strong the likelihood of them winning actually is. Los Angeles’ defense is very much accommodating to any taker. This is a team that has lost nine of their last ten because their offense could not compensate for the points given up. Teams have scored 103 points or more against the Lakers over this span and in four of the last five that number escalates to 116 or more. Philly’s stock was bound to plummet after they were soundly defeated by Toronto two days ago which once again puts the Sixers in position to be a quality value play.

The 76ers will likely offer tremendous upside in many instances because no one wants a piece of them. Therefore the markets are going to react accordingly as they will likely be undervalued and thus bear an economical price tag. Toronto has been searing hot as of late and with that being said, Philadelphia is likely an afterthought in the mind of many in this fixture. When you factor in the consideration that Toronto absolutely smoked Philly earlier this season, nine points may seem like a steal to many. However, Philadelphia has won two games on the road against teams that by no means should be considered a slouch. Likely, this 76ers bunch will enter this contest with the same reckless abandon that they play with every step of the way. Only recently this attitude has yielded rewards and thus Toronto should not treat this one as a walk in the park.

The Knicks are playing with a hot hand and do not look like the Knicks that were kicked around the NBA for previous few seasons. This franchise has adopted a new attitude and it is seen in the cohesion and fusion of their acquisitions. As a result of their chemistry improving, the Knicks have put together some impressive wins on their resume.

The Suns while they are a better team than the record suggests, stand at 7-17 because their defense can’t finish games. Phoenix can score as good as any team but they can also give up plenty of points. Nevertheless, the Knicks have had plenty of woes on the road. In fact, 60% of their losses came away from The Big Apple. Even with the Suns going 3-7 in their last ten, the market recognizes how close the Suns came to getting a win most recently against New Orleans where they fell by a point in OT. In fact this has been a common motif for the Suns this season…hanging around long enough but failing finish, especially in overtime. Nevertheless, the stock for New York is likely at a new height here and with that being said they are more prone to being overvalued in light of their recent successes. Look for the Suns to challenge the Knicks.

The question here is not whether Toronto will win, it’s whether the points here is too much to spot to a team like Milwaukee. Milwaukee is known for a robust and staunch defense and this form of strategy can be very difficult for any opponent to deal with on any court. Milwaukee’s last three defeats were by a combined total of 10 points. This is a team that spanked Cleveland and Portland in some of their most recent home initiatives and even against Toronto, they only fell by six points. The Bucks do not allow opponents to shoot well against them, they own the best three-point defense in the NBA and they are ranked second in opponent field goal percentage. This is bad news for Toronto who live and die by their methodical offense and thus the points here is a value play.

The Grizzlies are known as mentioned previously for a robust home court advantage. This team features some personnel that can simply get in Golden State’s face as upset their dynamic offense. The Warriors love the three-ball and they love to play a finesse style of basketball that keeps opponent’s guessing. However, the Grizzlies have the blueprint here to certainly make this game a hard-fought win for the Warriors if nothing else. Memphis is more or a less a no-name team and they buy in to an ideology where their philosophy is to win games by making other teams play outside of their schematic. So far this season, this approach has worked as perhaps their catalyst and leader point guard Mike Conley has been shelved with an injury until Mid-January. The Warriors should enter the FedEx Forum on upset alert.

As we have articulated previously, the Rockets are prone for overreactions based on previous results. The books have made no mistake in pricing the Thunder as a favorite as they are known for boasting a robust home court advantage. While we have an opportunity to take back a quality team at even odds, we will gladly opt in on OKC. Houston’s demolition of Los Angeles is bound to cause an overreaction because the performance was so prolific in nature. Nevertheless, as we have highlighted previously Oklahoma City is led by a unanimous candidate for MVP at this point in Russell Westbrook, whose play has been instrumental in OKC being competitive this season. The Thunder are stronger in rebounding, defense and allowing less turnovers which affords OKC at home to be a true value play against a likely overvalued Houston Rockets whose stock is currently through the ceiling by virtue of their recent victories.