So far this year we have seen many avoid the Sixers even when they were spotted an abundance of points. The general reaction by the consensus on the Sixers here is alarming be that it is so rare for many to hop aboard. The market has not caught up to Philly by any stretch. The Sixers’ against the spread record is one of the best in the league. However, when the Sixers have been smothered by most of the public, it immediately alerts us that likely the price is too good to be true. There are a million and one reasons to stay clear of the Nets but they play strong in Brooklyn while Philadelphia struggles on the road. We have seen the Nets hang 126 points on Phoenix in Brooklyn, just five days ago. So when this offense ignites the Over is certainly plausible given the fact the Nets’ defense is Swiss cheese. Swallow the points and play the Over.

The Hornets come into this game playing well on offense scoring over 100 points in four straight and getting the glory and the money in three of those four games. They seem to have the Bucks number winning and covering three straight dating back to last season and are my play here.

Normally when approaching a team like Cleveland we have always stated that you can expect to pay an inflated price for backing the Cavs. However, in this predicament we have the rare opportunity to get the Cavaliers at a good price. The Cavaliers have played .500 ball as of recent and most predominantly on the road all season long. With this being said, the assumption here given who they are facing and where they are facing them is that the Cavaliers will get ran off the court. However, Cleveland has a tendency to win the games that matter when they need to be won. This is the will of LeBron James and why he has been heralded as one of the all-time greats. Simply put, he propels teams that he is on to play at a higher level when required. While we are not suggesting that the Cavaliers are going to win this one outright, we do suggest that there is immense in value in taking the points here as Cleveland will approach this game as rudimentary.

Earlier this season we targeted Chicago with Milwaukee as the Bucks were consistently undervalued against the Bulls, especially when the venue was outside of the BMO Harris Bradley Center. Now, the opposite may be the case. The Bucks have found a second wind at the most critical time as Milwaukee has been a beast at home approaching the backstretch of the regular season. As a result, an overreaction is likely in the making. Takers who look at this market are most likely factoring in the previous result between these two teams and the recent slew of Milwaukee victories. A loss would place the Bulls’ season on life support. However, Chicago will go back to what it does best here to give it a chance to win. Both Chicago and Milwaukee own two top-ten scoring defenses (Milwaukee – 9th and Chicago 8th) and though many suspect this affair will be a higher scoring affair than projected, the defenses will likely control the tempo and pace of this one. Thus the Under looks like an excellent play here along with Chicago who should come in under this number with a scrappy performance against their division foes.

There a few prevailing factors which are influencing the public opinion of this contest. First and foremost, the contest is taking place in Rip City where the Blazers are known for a robust home court advantage. However, this season this has not been the case as the Trailblazers are just 18-15 SU in the Moda Center. Secondly, many perceive that Minnesota will be tanking this game at this point given the fact their playoff prospects are all the more grim compared to Portland who need the win. This may very well be the case but given the fact Portland’s defense is notoriously accommodating they cannot be trusted laying this kind of lumber, especially against a team that will continue to capitalize on the glass if Lillard and company have a cold shooting night. Chances are this one has overlay written all over it.

From the metrics alone the Warriors should blow the doors of the Kings. However, the number asked could by hyper-inflated by virtue of this and many other reasons. First, Golden State is back in excellent form and with that comes a premium. When a team of Golden State’s caliber plays a team like Sacramento who have long since given up on their campaign, the question here is not whether the Warriors will win but by how much? Nevertheless the lumber here is a lot to ask as Golden State could get out to a 30-point lead and call off the dogs to keep their starters fresh for the playoffs. In doing so, Sacramento can easily foster a backdoor cover and a price of this nature sets up takers for such an event. When you factor in this contest is at the Oracle Arena (where the Warriors are notorious for home court advantage), the gouging should be expected to be that much steeper. Take the points.

Given the fact Lob City just beat up on one of the West’s lower-echelon teams, the assumption here is that this price is too good given the fact Dallas was tarred and feathered by the best team in the West, just two days ago. However, these markets are usually quite sharp and what you see here is no gift from the bookmakers by any means. The Clippers are 20-18 SU away from home this season while the Mavs are 20-16 SU when hosting. Despite the necessity to win for playoff seeding, the Clippers are just 1-3 SU in their previous four road games (we are not counting that “away” game against the Lakers be that they play in the same building). This is a team that lost by convincing margins to both Denver and Minnesota despite being the far better team on paper. Given the reactions to both Lob City’s win and Dallas’ loss, the stock in these teams are at opposite ends of the spectrum here. This presents us with a great buy-low, sell-high opportunity. Take the points.

When you take action on Cleveland, expect to pay a premium. The contrasting straight-up and against the spread records of the Cavs suggest that this team is overvalued on a plethora of occasions and this is because takers pay a premium in taking back an elite NBA team. More often than not the number is always inflated. When the Cavaliers are on the road in particular, they are a .500 basketball team which makes them extremely risky whether spotting points or as an outright.

The fact remains Denver plays a physical brand of basketball that makes them extremely dangerous in any contest as they have a penchant for collecting boards. Given Cleveland’s track record and their more finesse approach to the game, this situation sets up perfectly for Denver who are in desperate need of a win with just a game on Portland for the coveted eighth seed. Denver may be worth a look on the Money Line as well as the price offered.

We have been watching Atlanta play some pretty uninspired basketball in its last few outings with Millsap out of the lineup and I do not see things getting any better on Wednesday night. The Wizards have some issues of their own heading down the stretch, but they should be able to get the SU win to take the season series.

I actually like the UNDER 212.5 points on Wednesday night as my “best bet” pick for this matchup. The recent trends are in my favor and without Millsap the Hawks will struggle to score much more than 90 points.

A big part of our practice is locating short-priced favorites. We were able to do so last night when the Golden State Warriors were spotting reduced points to an Oklahoma City Thunder team with a strong home court advantage. Many were banking on OKC to utilize this to their advantage and the rest is history as the Warriors had their way. A similar situation may be taking shape here. A presiding belief is that the Clippers with this volume of points in a rivalry game of this nature may seem to be a bit of an overzealous proposition. The fact remains, the Lakers have given up on their season while the Clippers are fighting for playoff positioning. This narrative is enough to suggest the Clippers are a solid play at this price. However, we will go a step further. The Lakers are ranked 30th in opponent field goal percentage (a NBA worst) and this in itself is enough to suggest the fifth-ranked field goal shooting team in the league will have a field day in a game where the Lakers will be that less inspired. Swallow the points.

The stock in Oklahoma City continues to rise with each win they acquire. Be that this team is playing at an exceptional level with respect to their current streak, the Thunder are a sexy choice at home against the Western Conference’s defending champs. However, in the rare instance the overreaction on the Thunder affords the opportunity to step in on Golden State at a reduced price. The Warriors have had the blueprint to beat this basketball team whether it be home or away; regular season or post-season. The fact the Warriors were able to hang 130 points on the Thunder on their own court earlier this season suggests Golden State has tremendous value here as a short-priced favorite. Golden State owns the best scoring offense in the league along with the highest field goal percentage. They are also ranked third in shooting the three. Additionally, Golden State are also the best in reducing opponent proficiency whether it be field goals at large or specifically from behind the arc. While Oklahoma City is stronger on the glass, Golden State can hurt them in too many ways from a variety of approaches. We are getting the better team here with very little lumber to lay.

Given the fact Detroit is currently riding a three-game losing streak this team should not be spotting this volume of points, even to teams like Phoenix. The initial angle many may take on this game is the notion Detroit needs to win while for Phoenix this is just an opportunity to work in some reserves and perhaps boost morale if they were to pull off the upset. However, Detroit has lost their last two at the Palace and by convincing margins. Granted, the two losses came against playoff teams (75 – 87 against Toronto and 83-97 against Utah) but the fact remains psychological perception of both clubs is what is shaping this number here be that Phoenix has some documented road woes.

These two teams match-up well overall as they are in essence polar opposites. The Suns have always been an offense-first club who fancy leaving their defense at home. The Suns are ranked 29th in scoring defense. The bad news is Detroit’s offense sits as 26th in scoring across the league as their game boils down their sixth-rated scoring defense paving the way. The assumption here is that Detroit’s defense will overpower Phoenix’s offense and that may well be true but given the fact Detroit’s offense has scored 83 points or less in their previous two games, it is very hard to trust them with this kind of lumber against a Suns offense which can score in flurries if they get hot.

Memphis is they live and die by their defense. As good as Memphis’ defense may be, San Antonio’s is actually better. The Spurs sit second in the league in scoring defense and opponent field goal percentage. Coach Pop also has his Spurs own the third ranked three-point defense and fifth-ranked club in terms of defensive rebounding. San Antonio is also the best three-point shooting team in the NBA. Which in essence provides the Spurs with an offensive wrinkle to utilize, if they wanted to avert a slugfest with teams of Memphis’ nature. The stock on the Spurs is down after they were shocked at home and when you combine this with the incendiary play of Memphis as of late, the price here shows that the market has paid careful attention to these narratives. The Spurs get back forward LaMarcus Aldridge and his return can catalyze this team’s necessity to get critical points in the paint. The Spurs will need every point they can get. While they are certainly a great option as an outright, we will never advise laying that kind of juice. Overall, the defenses in this game will likely dominate and dictate the ebbs and flows and thus it will likely be a hard fought contest of tight-margins. In situations like this, it is always best to take the points.

Toronto with points may seem to be very appealing given the fact the Raps are regarded as one of the premiere teams in the Eastern Conference. However, the effect of the beat-down they sustained last night has yet to be seen as Oklahoma City absolutely embarrassed them on their own court. Now, Toronto has to march up to the Motor City on a day’s rest to marinade in that bitter defeat. The Pistons are better rested and to their delight, they get the Raps at home. The Pistons have all the metrics to be favored in this contest. Toronto is a nominal club on the road and Detroit commits few turnovers. This will undoubtedly impact crowd participation and the overall psyche of both teams throughout the course of the game. Detroit overall plays stronger defense as they are ranked sixth in the NBA in scoring defense while also owning the deeper bench. Furthermore, as we have highlighted previously Detroit can take it to anyone on the boards, as Detroit is a top-ten team in rebounding at both ends of the court. Toronto remains one of the worst in creating second chances as they are 23rd in the NBA in offensive rebounding. Therefore the Raps will have to get hot to hang around in this game and are a cold night away from disaster. Given, Detroit’s home performance portfolio as a whole combined with Toronto’s road woes on the year there is value in actually swallowing these points.

Buying low and selling high is what it is all about and currently the stock on the Nuggets is much higher than the Clippers. When you look at Los Angeles and Denver on paper, Nuggets enthusiasts will cite the fact Denver is the best rebounding team in the NBA as they rank first in the league in production and second in surrendering rebounds. When you couple this will the overall difficulties that Lob City has faced with free throw shooting from both ends of the court (26th in shooting percentage, 25th in opponent shooting percentage) combined with Denver’s home court advantage, the Nuggets seem to be worth the squeeze in this situation. However, the Clippers are a different team with Blake Griffin on the court and the last time the Nuggets faced Lob City in Los Angeles, he wasn’t there as he was nursing an injury. This could throw a spanner in the works for the Nuggets and lead the Clippers to a victory in the Mile High City.

Milwaukee won the first meeting earlier this month in this season’s home-and-home series and I would stick with the home team again on Wednesday night. My main concern is the Clippers recent inability to cover the spread on their home court.

The Bucks have been a bad betting team on the road all season long so I am still going to lay the nine points and go with Los Angeles as my “best bet” pick.

Very simply, Detroit’s ghastly loss at Cleveland is influencing this market. However, we must remind everyone that the Cavaliers are much more dangerous team at home than they are on the road. Detroit has defeated Cleveland in both occasions where the Pistons were hosts but in the follow-up on the road, Cleveland has had its way. Home court advantage is a real phenomenon in basketball and it can be extremely impactful in games of consequence such as this one. However, that is not why we like the Pistons here. Though Utah owns the top-ranked scoring defense in the NBA, along with the third-ranked defense in terms of opponent field goal percentage, the Pistons commit less turnovers. Furthermore, Detroit can really take it to Utah on the boards as Detroit is a top-ten team in rebounding at both ends of the court. Utah is one of the worst in generating offensive rebounds. This game will be extremely physical and most of the battle here will be won in the paint. As a result, scoring will likely be kept to a minimum and thus there is great value on the Under. Given, Detroit’s home performance portfolio there is also tremendous value on the Pistons. Take the points.

This game has all the makings of an up and down the court affair. The last meeting between the two resulted in 239 total points being scored when the Thunder routed the Nets 124-105 in Oklahoma City. The Nets at this point have nothing to lose, so every victory is essentially an added bonus for them if they win. This mentality likely fueled the Nets to triumph against the Knicks as New York has simply given up on their season altogether. With the Thunder heading to Toronto next in what will be a pivotal game in their race for the Northwest Division, Oklahoma City may get caught looking ahead here and thus the Nets offer tremendous upside coming in off a momentum-building win.

The presiding market philosophy is like that of Dallas not being a trustworthy candidate on the road. When you couple this with the fact that the Mavs are coming in off a two-point home loss against the Phoenix Suns, the stock on Dallas has assuredly crashed through the floor even if Toronto themselves are riding a two-game skid of their own and 1-3 SU in their previous four. Previous to the Phoenix loss, the Mavericks had won six of their last seven. Low and behold, the one loss would be on the road at the Atlanta Hawks. Given the fact Toronto has a perceived enhanced home court advantage in the Great White North, the expectation here is that the Raps will roll. However, there is one wrinkle the Mavericks can take advantage of: free throw shooting. The Mavericks are the sixth ranked free throw shooting team in the NBA and the Raptors are one of the most accommodating teams in the NBA in opponent free throw percentage, sitting at 24th overall. This type of narrative often favors the team taking back the points and given the fact the expectations are so low, this sets up a perfect fade opportunity against Toronto. Furthermore, the Mavericks have eclipsed 100 points scoring or more in four of their previous five outings which show goes great signs of improvement in their NBA-last offense. Look for this one to heat up with both offenses being the potent force in deciding the outcome, the Over has upside.

The Nets are coming back from a long road trip that covered almost all of the country. In their last ten, the Nets have gone 2-8 SU and are assuredly delighted to take their own court. Though the Nets have won only 11 games this season, seven of their victories came at the Barclay’s Center. The Knicks have not fared well outside of Madison Square Garden as they are 11-23 SU away from the World’s Greatest Arena. With the Nets looking to take something away from this season, expect Brooklyn to rise up on their own court against an arch nemesis to take Big Apple bragging rights. With both teams offering accommodating defenses in terms of scoring, expect this one to be a high scoring affair. Brooklyn’s offense ignited for 122 points against Memphis. Chances are they will go to this blueprint to find success against a much easier to combat Knicks defense.