The Warriors have more or less defied convention in this series so far as they have covered as a favorite in two of the first three games in this series. With many analysts and pundits now forecasting the sweep, this could be the ideal time to once again step in on the Jazz. Targeting teams like Golden State is often a sound strategy because when they get on a roll or generate reactions the lumber one is required to lay becomes heavier. Laying road points can be a very risky play and Utah will likely be the next Golden State victim in this game. Given their backs are against the wall however, look for the Jazz to go out with a fight in what will likely be a robust lower-scoring feud compared to recent affairs. We are leaning on both the Jazz and the Under in this one.

In a rare occasion, we get an opportunity to take back the best team in the East in terms of wins and losses at a likely favorable price. When that situation sets up, we will be prompted to step in every time. Let’s not forget that targeting overreactions is not a practice solely that targets favorites. Sometimes, an underdog can actually undervalue a blue-chip team such as the Celtics. Home court advantage is a key point of this series and an area of focus for markets to value. So far in this series, the home team is 3-0 SU and this is a prevailing factor in the price one must pay in this situation. Furthermore the home team has been the favorite in each of these contests and has also successfully covered, so the consensus is emphasizing this in their reaction. The fact remains, the Wizards won by nearly 30 points and they are priced cheaper than they were in Game Three. This undoubtedly seems to be a trap play for anyone stepping on the Wizards and we will have no part.

In 2016, a similar situation unfolded as Cleveland jumped out to an early lead against the Raptors after Game Two when they dominated Toronto on its own court. Toronto would claw its way back into the series with an impressive home stand before Cleveland would send them off in six. Given the decimation Cleveland pulled off on Wednesday, the public is bound to react accordingly in this market with the Cavaliers appearing short-priced. However, as we have frequented in numerous occasions this season, the Cavaliers have hovered around .500 on the road all-season long. Even in their previous series with Indiana, they had to rally back from a 25-point deficit to pick up one win in Indy followed by a narrow escape in the successful sweep of the Pacers in Indianapolis. Toronto is a far different animal. The Raptors are known for a robust home court advantage and they know how to play Cleveland in this environment in games of this magnitude. The Raptors are set up perfectly here for an upset.

The price tag next to the Utah Jazz on the Money Line is an attractive one and the public’s propensity to step in on the Jazz at this price reveals the perceived value of this basketball team. However, sportsbooks don’t offer ridiculous propositions such as this, if it was bound to hit be that would it absolutely crush profits. The price on Utah in the Money Line is too good to be true and given the fact the Warriors lost just five times at the ‘O’, this year, the spread is a more viable selection. Given the same public’s behavior to lay the points to the Jazz, this once again seems to be a scenario where takers are biting an inflated number. The Jazz should have enough elbow room given their physical prowess to come in under this figure.

FREE PICK to BET: Take Utah +12.5

Toronto did not play all that bad in Game 1. The 11-point loss was more a product of just how well Cleveland played. There were no signs of rust from an extended layoff after the opening round sweep of Indiana and all three of the Cavaliers’ top playmakers came to play.

The Raptors are probably going down 2-0 in this series, but I am going to continue to ride the OVER on the 214-point total line as my “best bet” pick after cashing in on this play in Game 1.

When the public leans on a dog after said underdog loses considerably in the first contest, something feels off. Situationally, this scenario sets up for the Wizards to encounter trouble yet again. The Atlanta Hawks and the Boston Celtics are two different creatures, so when Washington sent them off at the Phillips Arena it shouldn’t have been classed as a shocker given the fact the Hawks have been a mediocre team for most of the backstretch. The same cannot be said for the Celtics who took the East by surprise with the conference’s top seed. Boston has a hot hand and while we have a chance to get them at what may be a reduce price, we will gladly opt in.

Overall, targeting overreactions is a big part of our position and acumen in our selection criteria. When nearly all of the money is coming in on the Cavs as an outright, requiring serious juice this says that there is likely such an event in the works. Very simply, Cleveland for a long time has made the Eastern Conference its dwarves. The Cavaliers are now the premiere team in all the NBA and they feature a player that has made a career off of NBA Finals appearances. Given the fact the Cavs are virtually unbeatable in the Quicken Loans Arena, the lumber to lay here should be expected to be heavy for any wishing to take action on the Cavaliers. A hefty premium assessed on taking LeBron at home creates a potential for a huge overlay and we will swoop in and scoff that up, every time. The fact remains Toronto is looking for vindication after what transpired last year in the Eastern Conference Finals and by no means should they be overlooked or undervalued in this situation.

For Utah this series will be one that could have been. The Jazz marched into the postseason with statistically the best scoring defense in the league and the most efficient defensive rebounding unit in the NBA as well. In all three of Lob City’s victories this season, the Clippers found a way to outmuscle the Jazz on the glass and they assuredly have a recipe here they can deploy with home court advantage in the only series to go the distance in the first round. Given all the disappointments that Los Angeles has suffered in the postseason in recent years, this will be the campaign the Clippers make a statement while they are short-handed to boot. Clippers win decisively against a demoralized and beleaguered Utah Jazz. We are with the public on this one.

The home side won and covered each of the four meetings this season. The winning margin in each game exceeded today's spread with the lowest margin being 8 points. The logical place for your money to land is on the host.

The Wizards have had their woes on the road this year but let’s not forget that prior to Atlanta winning Game Three and Game Four at home, the Wizards had won five in a row against the Birds regardless of where the contest transpired. Contrary to what may have occurred in this series, the Hawks do not own an overwhelming home court advantage compared to other NBA franchises. Atlanta was 23-18 SU at home previous to Game Three and Game Four and they have more or less played mediocre basketball since the All-Star Break. Atlanta at one point was ranked as high as third in the East and their play allowed Washington to usurp them for the Southeast Division credentials. Given the reaction of the public to Atlanta covering in Game Five, we would expect to see what is taking shape here to manifest. Ultimately this situation sets up Atlanta for a let-down by virtue of an over-reaction to takers getting beat on that 5.5-number all series long. Perfect time to buy the better team with enhanced points.

Situationally, this scenario sets up perfectly for Memphis. The Spurs have had an abysmal time in the FedEx Forum this season and they have had to rely on prolific performances from beyond the three-point line to yield some of the performances we have seen in this series that have raised eyebrows. The public has generally turned a reluctant eye yet again toward the Grizzlies despite the fact they were able to equalize this series once it went back to Music City. Without question, the Grizzlies can force a Game Seven here and the market evaluation reflects this. Despite San Antonio winning by 13 in Game Five, we see San Antonio enter here at a near identical price to what we saw in Game Three and Game Four. The price here seems to be hook-line-sinker for Spurs takers and once again we will fade what is likely yet another overreaction.

The Raptors have turned it around big time after the embarrassing 27 point loss in Milwaukee in Game 3 with back to back to wins and covers. Toronto’s starters are all scoring well right now with DeMarre Carroll’s 12 points the lowest scoring total of all five starters in Game 5. The Raps smell blood and should be able to close out the series tonight on the road where they have already grabbed a pair of wins in Milwaukee this season.

This is just the fourth time in NBA playoff history that the road team won each of the first four games in a best-of-seven series. I believe that is about to change as Boston begins to finally assert itself as the better team in this matchup.

I still like the UNDER on the total line despite the deflated betting odds (202 points) in what has been a tough defensive battle so far, but my “best bet” pick for Wednesday night is Boston covering the eight points at home in a statement game.

The last two games have soared over the total line after two UNDERS at the STAPLES Center. Jazz SF Gordon Hayward is expected to be back to full strength after a bout with food poisoning in Game 4 and while the Clippers’ PG Chris Paul has been playing brilliantly he can’t keep carrying the team on his back every night. I believe the solid defensive play at home by LAC continues tonight. The sharp money is on the UNDER and that’s exactly where my money has landed.

Seemingly Game Three and Game Four has been cast out with the notion that this game is going back to San Antonio where the Spurs are expected to win games big against a Memphis team known for a very shady track record in the AT&T Center. This may very well be the case but we cannot overlook the fact that Memphis has found a way back into the series and made this a three-game series essentially after they drew even with some sensational efforts in Music City. While San Antonio can easily win here, takers are likely spotting inflated lumber here to the Grizzlies based on previous results in this venue. The fact remains, this affair will likely be lower-scoring than Game Four given the fact overtime was required in what was a defensive-battle. The defenses of both squads will likely dictate this affair and thus the Under here offers tremendous value as well as the points.

Overall the public maneuvers in this affair has been that of a zig-zag with the lines themselves being relatively sharp given the fact the NBA’s best team is on the court. What we saw in Game One was everyone aboard Golden State at what was an inflated number to react in Game Two with a driven down price on Golden State that afforded Warriors takers a chance to step in then and there. In Game Three, a similar situation followed suit with a perceived home court advantage being given to Rip City and now the Blazers have failed to cover as the popular option in their last two games with a sweep seeming to be on the horizon. Now is the perfect time to take Portland when there is little faith vested in them as they try to avert a sweep on their own floor at all costs.

The total feels like the right place to be on this game. On only one occasion have both teams scored over the 96 points required to get to and surpass today’s line. That came in Game 2 when both teams went off from behind the arc with the Raptors hitting 14 of 29 and the Bucks connecting on 11 of 23. That didn’t happen in the other three matches and is unlikely to happen again tonight. Three of the first four fell short of the total and make that five after the buzzer sounds in Game 5.

It is very easy to get swept up in a zig-zag with the Celtics pulling off an impressive win and likely fostering an immense overreaction as a result. The fact that Jerian Grant gets the nod at the point with Rondo nursing a fractured thumb has likely digressed faith that Chicago can win this game, let alone the series after such an injury. However, the Bulls have incredible depth at the guard position overall. Behind Grant, the Bulls have the likes of Michael Carter-Williams, Isaiah Canaan and Anthony Morrow available. All of these individuals have experience as starters in this league and can assuredly steward the workload if their shoulder is tapped on. Given the fact the Bulls had off-nights from two key players who head up their scoring department, Chicago can easily rebound in Game Four if it find its stroke. Immense value in a four-point swing in just one game. Fade the Celtics.

In spite of Memphis’ triumphant resurgence, it seems the public is not buying in and has written this result off as a one-off more than anything of substance or consequence. Nevertheless, the Grizzlies have now won three games in a row at the FedEx Forum against this very San Antonio team and has managed to keep them under 100 points in each of these affairs. Given the influence home court advantage can play in this series overall, this series has the makings to go the distance and require seven games to declare a winner. The market itself will not come off the number offered here and we are getting the Grizzlies at the same price we got them in Game Three if we take them on the Money Line again. Given how Memphis has played on its own court this year situationally against the Spurs there is no reason to change our strategy especially if the public is heavily leaning the other way here which often signifies some form of an overreaction. In this case it works to our advantage.

The Hawks will probably play better in front of a favorable crowd with a return to the Philips Arena. However, keep in mind that they only split the two games at home against the Wizards this season with the win coming back on October 27th the only win Atlanta managed in the five matches overall this season. The Hawks are an unimpressive 23-18 as a host this season.If they are going to get win I think this is likeliest spot, but I just don’t feel comfortable laying points this afternoon.