Similar to what we will see with a team like Golden State or Toronto, when you back Cleveland at home expect to pay up. Despite the nasty skid that the Cavs are riding combined with Orlando’s ability to compete with them, the market still offers a favorable position on the Magic. In spite of this, the public is still keen to swallow the points. Such is the case often with public teams. However, the fact remains that Orlando knows how to beat this team on its own floor and they have a blueprint to follow. Whilst another upset may be hard to produce, it is safe to assume that the Magic can certainly come in under what is a ludicrous number.

There is not all that much on the line for either team in this matchup other than the opportunity to pick up a much-needed win. The Jazz are the better all-around team between the two and they should be able to cover the four points on the road. The ‘best bet’ pick in this game would be the UNDER on the current 202.5-point line in what should remain a defensive battle for all four quarters.

Targeting overreactions is a big part of our approach. There are fewer results that can foster such a phenomenon than beating Boston at home. As a result of last night’s outcome, the stock on New Orleans has now been catapulted through the ceiling. However, the market as a whole is not a firm believer. New Orleans on paper is the superior basketball team but nevertheless Atlanta is expected to be competitive in this contest given the initial asking price here.

The fact remains, New Orleans has been on the road and less rested of the two teams. Furthermore, New Orleans needed extra time to defeat Boston and that is more and more taxing as the season wears on. The Hawks will have plenty of pep in their step after beating one of the best of the West and we like them to pull an upset here, as well.

Once again, the stock on the Celtics is through the ceiling. We have already cited Beantown’s current winning streak but they have also been an economical choice against the spread as of late, going 3-1 ATS in their previous four outings. Thus, the low-hanging fruit offered in this market seems like a steal. However, there is a good chance that the Celtics are overvalued here given their overall body of work combined with home court advantage. The fact remains, New Orleans features one of the most feared duos in all of the NBA. The combination of DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis is one that could give even a team as rugged as Boston the shivers. Whilst the ‘Cans are riding a hot hand with this talent, we will step in on them while they remain undervalued. Take the points.

The Knicks have had documented woes on the road this season but that has not been the case in the BK. A popular angle here is that the Nets are fresher of the two given the extra day of rest and that could explain the sudden jump in the point spread. Regardless of the facts, the Knicks are physical and one of the best at causing opponents to miss. The Knicks own the 4th ranked opponent field goal shooting percentage in the NBA at 44.6%. This is bad news for the Nets who are the worst at shooting in the league (43.7% field goal percentage). Very simply, we are getting the better team at the better price. New York outright gets the call.

Overall, the Knicks have been in terrible form as of late reflected in a 2-8 SU record in their last ten outings. Moreover, the Knicks have not won a game at home over this stretch despite three attempts. There was once a point where a bettor could expect to pay a premium to back the Knicks in New York but now due to their stock being so low, we can take advantage. The fact remains that New York beat this team just two weeks ago in less accommodating confines. Despite, NOLA playing a far better brand of basketball as of recent the market is adept to the match-up here. The Knicks are in obvious position to pull off an upset. Given the fact we are only given a basket, we’ll trade the points in for the Knicks outright on the Money Line. In doing so, we erase the vig and swing the bet $.20 in our favor if we are successful. Knicks outright is the play.

This game is priced as a toss-up and in situations like that value often lies with the underdog. This is because we can reduce the juice in scenarios such at this which is quintessential in a 50/50 play such as this one. The fact remains, the Bulls have seemed to have lost their moxie in the Windy City and it will be hard to find against a team as physical and as scrappy as the Pistons. In rivalry games such as this one, home court is less of a factor compared to the norm. Detroit is coming in off an astounding road win its own right and they will hone that momentum here to take full advantage of a Chicago team set up for a let-down after an emotional and hard fought win.

Two years ago, the Milwaukee Bucks ended Golden State’s twenty-four game winning streak which was a NBA record. That historic upset came at the BMO Harris Bradley Center. Though it may seem like ancient history, it is nevertheless bulletin board material for this team to use as a source of motivation. Since that day, Milwaukee has sported the mantra “Fear The Deer” and made it their business to claim a distinct and robust home court advantage. Given the fact Milwaukee commits less turnovers and has the strong defense of the two, you can expect the Bucks to buck up and keep this one under the number.

In this market in particular, there is little use in taking a side given the unpredictability of how this game will play out given the notion of how each team responds to jet-lag and international travel across five time zones. However, this spot offers tremendous equity in Over/Under markets. 208 is a fairly high number for any NBA game. The implication that both teams will break the 100-point threshold here given the fact one or both of the participants can go cold from these variables makes that figure seem a bit ludicrous. Boston is known for its rugged defensive operations and its same to assume here it will rely on it to get through this contest. Boston has not allowed more than 90 points in its last three games but they also haven’t scored more than 91 in their last two outings. A similar situation will likely take place here. Take the Under.

This contest offers two value opportunities. First, Brooklyn as mentioned plays at a high level at home and this is reflected in the low-hanging fruit for Detroit takers. Given Detroit’s woes on the road combined with Brooklyn’s dossier in the BK, the Nets are a great Money Line play here as they are primed to pull an upset after coming close in their last two attempts against two of the East’s best teams. In doing so, the game will be on Brooklyn’s terms which means it will be offense first. Therefore, the Over also bodes tremendous equity in the spot it is currently offered at.

There are several components that hard sell Toronto in this market. First, they have had the upper hand as of late but we pay no credence to that given the fact the last meeting was nearly a year ago. However, recency biases can still be applied by some. Furthermore, there is always the notion of Toronto getting this one at home. That in itself sells the Raptors in this market. When you combine these narratives with the fact the Heat nearly lost at home to one of the worst teams in the West, Miami looks like an easy out here. However, Toronto though they did not have to journey far to Brooklyn still had to undergo the rigors of travel. The Raptors will also enter this contest on less rest compared to the Heat. When you add in the fact that Toronto’s dominance at home inflates the price of this market, the Heat offer tremendous value in this scenario.

Not too long ago, Chicago appeared to have been unbeatable at home. As a result, takers were exposed to heavy premiums to back Chicago on its own floor despite the losing record overall this season. However, the opposite is likely the case here. Houston has become one of the NBA’s quintessential public teams. This can be chalked up to the off-season acquisition of point man Chris Paul to complement the game’s best shooter in James Harden. The dynamic duo anchor the latest “superteam” and such hyperbole often spells a tendency for said club to be overvalued. Like Cleveland and Golden State, the Rockets own a stellar win-loss record but have performed poorly against the spread. This is a common motif of public teams. We will certainly take advantage of this narrative to get enhanced points in a favorable setting not just for a cover but an outright upset. Don’t be shy to look at Chicago on the Money Line here as well.

The trend in this series is to the OVER with the last four meetings ending on that side of the line, but that number reflects games in the last two seasons and this will be their first meeting in this campaign. The Cavaliers have been struggling to score in recent games scoring 101 or fewer points in four of their last six contests. The Timberwolves have been playing great defense holding their opponents to fewer than 100 points in five consecutive games and UNDER bettors have cashed in their last six matches.

The earlier match between these two teams came in under the total line with a combined 184 points scored. I believe this game will do the same. The totals in the Spurs games have been overvalued in recent weeks with six of the last nine games falling below the listed line. The Blazers can’t be counted on to play great defense game in and game out, but they do play it well enough to rank 4th in scoring defense this season. 

The Nuggets find themselves in a back to back with three games in five days angle that I’d normally jump on, but the team is playing at a high level right now. They’ve won five of their last seven games and in that span on the road Denver beat Portland and Golden State and lost in overtime to Minnesota. The Kings are very thin at the guard position and had to go with D. Fox (-19) and G. Hill (-1) as starters and B. Hield (-19) and B. Bogdanovic (-11) off the bench. The OVER looks like a possibility, but I’ll think a side play holds more value.

The market has certainly sharpened up to the potency of Brooklyn and their ability to hang with an elite-level team such as Boston. When the two teams last met on New Year’s Eve, we saw Brooklyn offered as a double-digit dog and yet just one basket separated the two outfits. Now, Brooklyn is getting far less of a cushion on their own court which means the market believes they have a solid chance of being a live dog in this scenario. The public however seems to not buy in and sees Boston offered at a deceptively good price. However, the low hanging fruit has all the makings to be a trap. Grab the points.

Washington has been a positive 11-8 against the spread on the road this season and come into this game hot. That said, they haven’t had much success against the Grizzlies in Memphis and failed to get the cover in an earlier match-up at Capital One Arena winning by just 6 as a -7.5 favorite. I’ll take my shot on the home dog here.

Toronto is lucky to get away with a win when these two met days ago and you can bet Milwaukee will be coming to play with some extra juice in spite of what transpired in the Air Canada Centre. Given the fact Milwaukee gets to host the affair, home cooking will play an influence in this contest just as it did in the previous edition. Milwaukee outright gets the call.

Both clubs have been shooting exceptionally well and the Thunder playing back to back on the road may have them a step slow on defense. The total line is a reasonable 214.5 points and these two did put up 231 in an earlier meeting in November.

Undoubtedly a presiding narrative in this contest is the story of Minnesota’s march into playoff contention in the West compared to Brooklyn who continue to remain as a perpetual bottom-feeder in their respective conference. As a result, the Timberwolves offer far more appeal in this market even the variables include spotting a generous heaping of road points to a team that plays far better on its own court. We will have no part of that.

The Nets have played comprehensive Western Conference teams tough in the BK. Against Portland, Oklahoma City, and Golden State, the Nets are 1-2 SU but 3-0 ATS. This is the likely reason why the opening number was far less accommodating compared to its current station. However, a likely overlay pushed this market to a figure we can take advantage of. Don’t be shocked if the Nets actually pull an upset here.