Both of these teams have been giving a high return to OVER bettors in their last five games with the Orioles going 5-0 vs. the O/U line and the Mariners 4-1. The pitching match-up suggests that would be a good bet again tonight. Baltimore’s starter Kevin Gausman has had a rough time of it on the road this season going 0-4 with a 5.11 ERA. He’s also been hit hard by a slew of Seattle’s hitters who hold a combined overall batting average of .350 against him. Wade Leblanc through his first pitch in the majors since 2014 and looked good with six shutout innings, but I think he may revert back to his historical numbers in his outing.

Five of the seven games this season have seen UNDER bettors get the money, but today there are plenty of numbers that support bucking that trend. Minnesota’s starter Ricky Nolasco had an outing at U.S. Cellular Field earlier this season and was tagged for seven runs (five earned) over five innings making that his third poor outing in four career starts at that venue. White Sox starter James Shield improved in his latest after four consecutive disastrous starts and faces a roster that he has historically pitched poorly against with Chicago’s line up hitting a career .328 against. 

You would have a dent in your bankroll if you’ve been wagering against the Rangers with Cole Hamels on the mound this season. The Rangers have won eleven of his fifteen starts this season and Hamels comes into this game sizzling hot allowing 12 hits and two earned runs in his last two starts covering 20 2/3 innings. The Yankees counter with CC Sabathia who is coming off a poor start, but overall he’s been pitching well this season with a 66.7 QS percentage. Neither pitcher has good back numbers against tonight’s opponent, but Texas has the better stats against lefties and are the play here. The Rangers are on a 13-3 roll with the opposition needing to score eight or more runs to get the win in their three losses over that stretch. 

The Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez pitched reasonably well in his two career starts against the Rays both coming last season. However, this season he has had his struggles coming into this game and while it is a small sample size of 18 plate appearances against the current TB line up they have hit .333 lifetime against him. The Rays offense showed signs of improvement over their last two games getting to the Orioles’ pitching for 11 runs. They give the ball to promising rookie who is coming off of his best start of his MLB career going 6 2/3 innings allowing two earned runs. I’ll take a shot on the home team putting an end to their losing streak playing a team who has been have troubles of their own dropping five of their last seven games.

The initial response for most bettors is to ride the Astros. They’re on a roll, winners of seven straight and victorious in starter Doug Fister’s last ten starts. The thing is, Fister doesn’t pitch well against the Royals with the current roster hitting a lifetime .294 against him in 187 plate appearances. The Royals have dropped four consecutive games, but they’ve hit the ball well in the last two games banging out 26 hits. Ian Kennedy takes to the mound for the home team and he’s been good at Kauffman Stadium this season with a 2-1 record and 2.30 earned run average. He’s had his way with Houston’s batters holding them to a lifetime .175 batting average. 

The Jays starter R.A. Dickey hasn’t allowed three or fewer runs in five straight games. His overall numbers against the White Sox are not great, but he did pitch well his previous time in Chicago allowing two runs on four hits over seven innings. The White Sox give the ball to Michael Gonzalez who has been sharp recently holding the opposition to one run in three of his last four. The total line seems like the logical play here. 

Neither team has been giving the scorekeeper a workout with the Athletics exceeding three ones in just one of their last five games. The Angles have also had their troubles offensively scoring failing to surpass two runs in three of their last four. Oakland’s starter Kendall Gravemen has started to get it together holding the opposition to two or fewer runs in three of his last four outings and he’s owned the Angels this season allowing two earned runs in 13 innings over two this season. Los Angels starter Tim Lincecum looked good in his return and he has had success against the A’s lineup holding them to a combined career average of .197 in 74 plate appearances. 

The Orioles send righty Kevin Gausman to the mound for this one game set at Globe Life Park. Gausman was strong in his only career start here last season, but he hasn't been at his best in recent games. The Rangers counter with Derek Holland who has also struggled as of late with back to back inferior outings. He has however excelled against Baltimore in his career and has string together six consecutive quality starts against them. Texas has won five of the last six as the host in this series and should get the money today.

The Giants' starter rookie Albert Suarez didn't embarrass himself in his only career road start, but he didn't impress either. He's coming off of a relief appearance and he may be out of sorts coming back to the starting rotation. The Rays will counter with Matt Moore who is coming off his best start of the season, and while he has been inconsistent this season overall at home he's recorded a quality start in 62.5% of his starts. Wagering on the home side at Tropicana hasn't been a profitable investment this season, but I'll take my chances today laying the small number.

The home side has had a lot of success in recent games getting the victory in eight of the last nine contests. However, the Tigers' starter Jordan Zimmermann has decent historical stats against the White Sox and has been brilliant on the road this season with a sizzling g 1.37 ERA over 26.1 innings and registered a quality start in all four outings. Miquel Gonzalez gets the ball for the Chisox and he's been sharp lately overall and has strong home numbers. What he doesn't have is a good history against the Detroit line up who as a group have hit .306 versus him in his career.

Tampa Bay's Chris Archer has had a rocky season, but he pitched reasonably well in his latest and he's 'owned' Houston in the past allowing a total of three earned runs in five career starts. The Astros starter Mike Fiers like his counterpart has also been up and down this season, but on the road it's been mostly down with a 1,68 WHIP and 7.20 ERA. The Rays bats have booming so I don't expect him to turn it around today. You won't pad your bankroll if you regularly lay a number this big, but today's match-up justifies the risk.

The Marlins' starter Wei-Yin Chen's historical stats against tonight's line-up are poor (.325 BA and .838 OPS), but he's in good form right now allowing two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts. He held the Twins to three runs over 13 innings in two starts last season and Minnesota has not hit lefties well all season. The Twins' starter Ricky Nolasco has been really sharp in his last two allowing three runs on three hits over 11 innings and has four quality stats in his last five. Miami's line up has just 73 plate appearances against Nolasco, but 53 of those were by Martin Prado and while he holds a .353 lifetime batting average against him, he's been ice cold over the last week hitting .222.

Houston starter Dallas Keuchel has been up and down all season with more poor outings than good. The Texas roster has decent historical numbers against him overall and have crushed him in two starts this season scoring 13 earned runs over 12 innings pitched. The Rangers' starter tonight Cole Hamels hasn't pitched as well at home this season (2-1 4.72 ERA) as on the road, but he does have two solid road against the Astros this season and overall good numbers versus the team. I'll lay the small number on the team with the best overall record in the AL and also the best home mark.

The Tigers hit some pretty good pitching offered up by the White Sox in their sweep and have handled left handed pitching well this season, so they should have some success against Jays' starter J.A. Happ. Tigers' rookie pitcher Michael Fulmer has been killing me this season when I have faded him and he continues to improve and may be the hottest pitcher in baseball right now going 3-0 with a sizzling 0.58 WHIP and ERA of 0.40 in his last three outings. I'll lay my action on the rook and the home team tonight.

The starting pitching match-up is in my opinion closer than it may appear. Milwaukee's starter Jimmy Nelson has recorded four straight quality starts, but he doesn't have great historical numbers against the Phillies' batters in limited plate appearances. Philadelphia starter Vince Velasquez got lit up at Wrigley Field in his latest, but that was on the road and at home he's been very sharp going 3-1 with a 0.74 earned run average in four starts. The Phillies' offense has generated greater than two runs just once in their last seven matches.

The Yankees' starter Masahiro Tanaka has had a lot of success against the Jays in Toronto winning all three of his lifetime starts. Toronto's starter Aaron Sanchez got lit up a few games back but responded well with two good outings. He can normally be counted on for a sharp outing backed statistically by his 80% QS percentage in ten starts. The under is the most logical play here and that's where I'll be investing my money tonight.

The Orioles' offense looked better against the Indians, but they looked lost yesterday against Wright. Baltimore has been held to three or fewer runs in six of their last nine and have struggled all season against left handed pitching which they face on the mound tonight in starter Eduardo Rodriguez. Boston's offense has been on a roll scoring five or greater runs in eight of their last nine games and they got to Orioles' starter Kevin Gausman for five runs in five innings the last time they faced him. That was in Boston and Gausman does pitch better at home, but I'll back the visitor getting plus money in this spot.

The Astros have picked up some wins lately, but their run production hasn't been impressive averaging 3.4 runs per game over their last five and 2.44 RPG over their last nine. They're scheduled to face Astros' starter Nicholas Tropeano who has been ultra-sharp in his last three starts allowing a total of three runs over 18 2/3 innings. The Angels don't have a lot of history against Houston's starter Doug Fister, especially recently, but he has held the players he has faced on the LA team to a batting average of .161. Fister has been strong on the road notching a QS in four straight. The total is where my money will be today on this game.

Oakland is slumping, but the value is just not there with Detroit's starter Michael Fulmer. He was fabulous in his last start, but that was his first lifetime QS in the majors and it came at home. He may have turned the corner of course, however, he'll need to prove that he can pitch on the road where he has gone 2-1 with a 6.52 ERA. The Athletics' lefty Sean Manaea gets the start and while he hasn't impressed at home, his overall numbers at A's Coliseum are decent with a 1.24 WHIP and allowing opponents an .300 OBP. I'm willing to take a shot on the home side at a decent price.

Baltimore starter Kevin Gausman has pitched well in his six starts this season holding his opponent to three or fewer runs in five of the games and getting a QS in four. Houston starter Lance McCullers looked really good in his latest and appears to be rounding into form in his second start after missing seven turns in the rotation with shoulder soreness. He pitched brilliantly in his only career start against the Orioles holding them to one run while striking out 11 in a complete game win last season. With two laboring offenses the play here is on the total.