<p>The upstart Diamondbacks own a better record than the Braves, heading into the opener of this three-game weekend series Friday night in Phoenix. Merrill Kelly and his 2.83 ERA hit the hill for Arizona here against venerable Charlie Morton for Atlanta.</p>
<p>How are we playing this game with our free Atl/Ari pick?</p>
<h2>MLB Betting Odds</h2>
<p>Friday's baseball betting market opened in Atlanta at around -130 over Arizona, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then dipped the Braves a nickel to -125.</p>
<h2>Braves-Diamondbacks Betting Preview</h2>
<p>Atlanta just dropped two of three games at lowly Oakland earlier this week, avoiding the sweep by winning Wednesday's series finale 4-2. The Braves then had Thursday off.</p>
<p>Just before that, Atlanta split four games with Philadelphia, and just before that, it lost two of three to the Dodgers. So the Braves, following a super start to this season, are 0-2-1 over their last three series and 4-7 over their last 11 games.</p>
<p>At 33-23 overall, Atlanta leads the NL East by 3.5 games over the second-place Mets.</p>
<p>Arizona, meanwhile, just swept four games at home from Colorado, winning Thursday's series finale 5-4 on a walk-off base hit in the bottom of the ninth. Just before that, the Diamondbacks lost two of three to Boston, but just before that, they took two of three at Philadelphia.</p>
<p>Going back a bit further, the D'Backs are 5-1 over their last six series and 14-5 over their last 19 games.</p>
<p>At 34-23 overall, Arizona is tied with the Dodgers for the best record in the National League. The Diamondbacks are also well on their way toward playing over their season wins O/U, which was 75.5.</p>
<p>This series is the first meeting between these teams this season. Last year the Braves took the season series from the D'Backs four games to two.</p>
<h2>Friday's Pitching Match-Up </h2>
<p><a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/pitcherlog/259728&quot; title="Merrill Kelly Pitching Game Logs">Kelly</a> is 6/11 on quality starts this season and two for his last three. Last Sunday, he held the Red Sox to one run and four hits through 6 1/3 innings, with two walks against ten strikeouts, in a 4-2 Arizona victory. And over his last three starts, he's allowed six runs - only four earned - and 11 hits through 18 1/3 innings, with five walks against 23 whiffs.</p>
<p>Based on his performances, the Diamondbacks are 7-4 with Kelly this season, and that might even be a game worse than they should be.</p>
<p>In his only start against Atlanta last season Kelly tossed seven innings of three-hit shutout ball, although Arizona lost that game 1-0.</p>
<p><a class="advblue"href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/pitcherlog/39795&quot; title="Charlie Morton Pitching Game Stats">Morton</a> is 5/10 on quality starts this year but 0 for his last two. Last Saturday, he managed to hold the Phillies to two runs on seven hits and four walks through 5 1/3 innings, although the Braves lost that game 2-1. And just before that, he got touched for six runs in five innings of an 8-6 Atlanta loss to the Dodgers.</p>
<p>The Braves are 5-5 with Morton this season, although that's probably a game or two worse than they should be.</p>
<p>In his only start last year against the Diamondbacks, Morton gave up four runs in five innings of an 8-7 Atlanta defeat.</p>
<h2>Splits With the Sticks</h2>
<p>Atlanta is batting .237 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .314 team OBP and a .421 team slugging percentage.</p>
<p>Arizona is slashing .260/.327/.437 against right-handed pitching.</p>
<h2>The Bullpens </h2>
<p>The Diamondbacks bullpen owns a 4.06 ERA this season, along with a 1.33 WHIP and a 2.53 K/BB ratio.</p>
<p>The Braves pen owns a 4.04 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 3.12 K/BB ratio.</p>
<h2>MLB Betting Trends</h2>
<p>Atlanta is 18-9 on the road this season and 23-18 against right-handed starters.</p>
<p>Arizona is 19-12 at home and 24-13 against right-handed starters.</p>
<h2>Totals Report</h2>
<ul>
<li>The overs are 31-23 in Braves games this season.</li>
<li>The totals are split 27-27 in Diamondbacks games.</li>
<li>The unders are 17-11 at Chase Field this season.</li>
</ul>