New York Yankees at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Analysis & Moneyline Pick | 10/26/24
Betting Odds
Following an epic ending to Game 1 of this World Series, the Dodgers aim to secure a 2-0 Series lead Saturday night at Dodger Stadium. Los Angeles took the opener in dramatic fashion Friday night, with Freddie Freeman ripping a two-out, bottom-of-the-10th Grand Slam to lift the Dodgers to a 6-3 victory over New York.
For Game 2, Los Angeles sends Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the mound to face Yankees' lefty Carlos Rodon.
World Series Betting Odds
The betting market opened with Los Angeles around -140 over New York, with an over/under of 8.5, both holding steady in early action. Los Angeles is also currently listed at -220 to win the Series, while the Yankees offer value at +190.
Game 2 Betting Preview
Los Angeles captured Game 1 in extra innings, securing a 6-3 win with Freeman’s Grand Slam that completed an improbable comeback. The Dodgers, who trailed 3-2 in the bottom of the 10th, loaded the bases with two outs before Freeman delivered the game-winner. Los Angeles closed Game 1 as a -120 favorite and, with Freeman’s blast, managed to push the game over the posted total of 8.5.
Notably, in Game 1 prop action, Yankees' Giancarlo Stanton cashed in as the first home run hitter with his two-run shot in the sixth, a bet that paid out at +900.
These teams last met in June, with the Dodgers taking two of three at Yankee Stadium. Yamamoto delivered a strong outing in that series, though he ended without a decision.
Game 2 Pitching Matchup
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is graded at 6/18 on quality starts this season and has not managed a postseason quality start, with a shorter leash being a contributing factor. In his most recent outing, nine days prior, he allowed two runs over 4 1/3 innings with one walk and eight strikeouts in the Dodgers' NLCS-clinching win over the Mets. The Dodgers went 11-7 in his regular-season starts and remain unbeaten at 3-0 with Yamamoto this postseason. Yamamoto's only career start against New York, back in June, saw him toss seven innings of two-hit, shutout ball in an extra-innings win for the Dodgers.
Carlos Rodon, who’s graded 16/32 on quality starts this season, has a 1/3 quality start record in the postseason. Most recently, he allowed two runs in 4 2/3 innings during New York’s ALCS clincher against Cleveland. During the regular season, the Yankees went 19-13 behind Rodon and 2-1 in the postseason. This will be Rodon’s first appearance against the Dodgers since 2022 when he pitched for San Francisco.
Offensive Splits
The Yankees batted .253 against right-handed pitchers, with a .332 OBP and a .445 SLG, while the Dodgers slashed .269/.337/.458 against left-handed pitchers. Both lineups rank among the top in baseball against these pitching matchups.
Bullpen Comparison
Dodgers relievers posted a 3.53 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and a 2.69 K/BB ratio this season, while Yankees relievers ended with a 3.62 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and a 2.62 K/BB ratio, making both bullpens reliable but slightly edged toward the Dodgers.
MLB Betting Trends
- New York went an MLB-best 50-31 on the road this season and 73-45 against right-handed starters.
- Los Angeles played 52-29 at home and 36-17 against left-handed starters.
Totals Report
- Overs went 86-69 in Yankees games and 89-68 in Dodgers games this season.
- Postseason games for the Yankees and Dodgers combined have trended Over at 14-5.
- Overs were 45-31 at Dodger Stadium this season and 30-18 when Yamamoto and Rodon started.
This series is shaping up to be a tight contest, and we expect it could go the distance. Although the Dodgers hold small edges in certain areas, we find the line on Game 2 overly tilted. After narrowly missing our Game 1 pick on the Yankees, we're sticking with New York’s value as an underdog in Game 2.
Free World Series Game 2 Pick
This series is shaping up to be a tight contest, and we expect it could go the distance. Although the Dodgers hold small edges in certain areas, we find the line on Game 2 overly tilted. After narrowly missing our Game 1 pick on the Yankees, we're sticking with New York’s value as an underdog in Game 2.