We bet Miami Saturday because we figured this series was due for a close game. And although that’s not quite how Game 3 played out, it worked for us. The Heat stole Game 3 basically without Butler, but they’re really banged up at the moment and may feel rest is the best situational remedy. Even if Miami loses Monday night, it will still own home-court advantage for what would be a best-of-three series. Meanwhile, Boston probably won’t turn the ball over 24 times Monday night. We’re not big believers in the “zig-zag” theory of betting NBA playoff basketball, but it’s 2-0 ATS in this series, and we’re betting it in this spot. We like the Celtics here, minus the points.

Boston is probably the better team in this match-up and should win this game. But the Celtics probably won’t shoot 20/40 from 3-point land again anytime soon. Meanwhile, Miami is tough, and we love Jimmy Butler. Plus, this series is due for a nail-biter. So while we won’t call for the outright upset here, we are taking the Heat plus the points.  

We played Golden State in Game 1 of this series because we believe it’s just the better team in this match-up, mainly on defense and on the boards, while Dallas is just a bit too dependent upon one guy for points. And that’s just how Game 1 played out. From there we don’t see much reason to believe Game 2 won’t play out along the same line. So we’re giving the points with the Warriors again for Game 2.   

Boston beat Miami twice in the regular season by blow-out, leading one game by 18 at the half, winning another by 30, then led Tuesday's game at the half. Really, it was a 2/15 shooting stretch in the third quarter that may have cost the Celtics the game. Now, it looks like they're getting Smart back. We expect this series to go seven games and won't be surprised when Boston grabs Game 2 outright.    

Golden State is the better team here, namely defensively and on the boards, with more options on the offensive end. Dallas, meanwhile, just seems a bit too dependent upon one guy to put the ball in the hole. We like the Warriors to win this series so we’re betting them to take this Game 1, too.  

Boston outplayed Miami during their regular-season series, winning two of three meetings by blowouts. Also, the Celtics just played Sunday while Miami last played last Thursday, and it often seems playing more recently keeps teams sharper. Plus, the Heat might play a little shorthanded Tuesday night. We’re betting Boston to take Game 1. 

Phoenix is just the better team in this match-up, with more options on offense, while Dallas is just a little too dependent upon one guy. And Doncic can’t do it all by himself. So despite the home teams’ record in this series so far, we’re betting the Suns to take Game 6 and advance to the Western Conference finals. 

Phoenix won and covered the first two games of this series at home at -6 and -6.5, and there’s little reason to believe something similar won’t happen Tuesday night. Also, Suns G Chris Paul scored just five points Sunday before fouling out; we expect a much more productive performance here. Also, Dallas hit 20/44 from 3-point range Sunday; we’re very dubious as to whether they can do that again Tuesday. We like Phoenix here, minus the points.

We love Milwaukee’s battle-tested-ness; the Bucks won a bunch of big games last season on their way to the title and won another one Saturday. And while they’re playing without Middleton, they’re getting great play from their supporting cast. This one will probably be close too, but we like Milwaukee at home, giving the short spread.

Philadelphia crawled back into this series with a Game 3 victory, but we still believe Miami is the better team in this match-up, namely on defense. Also, the Heat shot just 35 percent from the floor in Game 3; we expect a better performance Sunday night. So while we’re not big believers in the “zig-zag” theory of playoff betting, we’re putting our money on Miami in this spot.  

Milwaukee, even down Middleton, is a battle-tested outfit, getting great play from the supporting cast and playing great defense. Boston, meanwhile, might be without the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year. We’re betting the Bucks for the win getting +155 on the NBA money line.  

Dallas played Phoenix tough three times this season, twice without Doncic. Also, the Mavericks played 18-13 ATS as underdogs this season, then 3-1 ATS in the first round against Utah. We won’t call for the outright upset here, but we are taking Dallas plus the points. 

Minnesota’s given Memphis a real tough time in this series, but the Grizzlies are the better team here, mainly on defense and the boards, and it’s time for them to put this series in the books. We’re betting Memphis Friday night.

It would be easy to jump on Dallas here, following a 25-point blow-out victory Monday night, but these teams are pretty close in talent and ability and this game should be, too. Also, Utah shot just 3/30 from 3-point land in Game 5; we expect a better performance Thursday night. So we’re backing the Jazz Thursday night.  

Phoenix looked a bit discombobulated in losing Game 4, but we expect a bounce-back performance Tuesday night. And while they’ll play without Booker, we’ll point out that Milwaukee played its last two games in its series against Chicago without one of its key players, Khris Middleton, and won by 30 and 24 points. We’re not big on the “zig-zag” theory of betting NBA playoff basketball, but we’re playing it here; we’ll give the points with the Suns.  

Curry is back for Golden State, and the Warriors look like they’re clicking. Denver, meanwhile,  hasn’t been at full strength all season, and Jokic is feeling the pressure of trying to carry this team by himself. Heck, he got ejected from the game the other night after taking some abuse from various Warriors. And you need more than one guy who can throw it in the hole in the playoffs. We like Golden State here, playing on the road, where spreads tend to be more amenable.

Minnesota rode Big Mo to victory in Game 1 but we’re very dubious as to whether they can shoot the ball like that again in Game 2. Memphis, meanwhile, looked a bit rusty Saturday following five days off; we expect a sharper performance from this 56-win team Tuesday night. So while we do not regard the “zig-zag” theory as a reliable handicapping factor we’re playing it here; we’ll give the points with the Grizzlies.  

Philadelphia won Game 1 of this series by 20 points with limited contributions from Embiid and Harden. Tyrese Mackey probably won’t throw in 38 Monday night like he did Saturday, but Embiid and Harden should shoot better than 11/32. Meanwhile, Toronto is really short-handed, with Trent and Barnes probably both out. We’re giving the points here with the 76ers. 

In the 4/5 matchup of the Western Conference playoffs, the Utah Jazz enter as 4.5 point favorites on the road as Mavs point guard Luka Doncic is out with a calf strain. Despite being the higher seed and winners of their past 4 games, Dallas will be facing an uphill battle, as Doncic provides scoring, distributing, and rebounding at an elite level. Look for Utah to capitalize on his absence, as they already held a significant advantage on the boards, ranking 3rd in rebounds per game. In addition, the Jazz are one of the best team's in the NBA at defending the paint, giving up just 45 points per game inside. Look for the Jazz to pick up the road win and take the 1-0 lead in the series.

Even though the Miami Heat has nothing to play for in terms of playoff seeding, are on the road, and will be without Jimmy Butler, they are still 12 point favorites vs Orlando. Over the Magic's last 10 games, they have covered the spread just 3 times, most of which were as heavy underdogs. On the other side, the Heat have covered the spread in 6 straight contests. Look for Tyler Herro and the Heat to pick up an easy win and cover vs an Orlando unit looking to end a disappointing 2021-2022 season.