Oklahoma is averaging 442 yards per game and 38 points per game; Oregon is averaging 418 and 31. And both teams are missing several starters on defense due to injuries or sit-outs. We're not sure who's going to win this game, but we get the feeling there will be a lot of points scored. So we're betting the over 60 for our free Alamo Bowl pick.  

UCLA owns the check-mark on offense while North Carolina State gets the check-mark on defense, and we usually love betting the better defense in match-ups like this. However, the Bruins are also averaging 220 yards on the ground per game while the Wolfpack are only getting 127. Also, UCLA finished very strong, averaging almost 50 points per game its last three times out, while NC State needed help to beat an iffy North Carolina outfit. Plus, we wonder if the travel might come into play here; one team is going to take a bus to the game, the other, not so much. We’re betting the Bruins here, for the win.

Even with the tough season and the firing of the head coach Florida is still solidly the better team in this match-up. The Gators own the better running game and the better defense, and they played a much tougher schedule than Central Florida. As long as the turnovers don't pop up, Florida is going to win this game and cover this spread.   

Army is playing 111 yards per game better than Navy offensively and 35 YPG better defensively. The Black Knights are also out-rushing opponents by 198 YPG. Army also owns the better performance against the common opponent. And according to Sagarin, the Knights should be favored by even more than they are. We like Army to continue its recent run in this rivalry and cover this spread.  

Ball control should be the main focus of both teams making the total appear to be the prudent play.

Georgia owns the best defense in the country and the better running game in this match-up. And while the Bulldogs absolutely rolled through their schedule this season, Alabama had a bunch of close calls. So while we don't like going along with the betting flow, we are backing the Bulldogs here, minus the points.

These teams are darn near identical offensively, but the Utes are about 45 yards per game better than Oregon defensively. Also, Utah posted a slightly better performance against common opponents this season. Also, the Utes dominated the Ducks in that game two weeks ago. So while they probably won't win this one by 31 points, we like Utah here for our PAC-12 championship game pick.

Western Kentucky owns the better offense but UTSA owns the better defense. And in match-ups like this we usually prefer the better defense. Also, following that dismal performance of last week we expect a big rebound from the Roadrunners this week. Bettors might want to keep an eye out for later updates on UTSA's quarterback situation but from here, three days out, we like the Roadrunners. 

I really like the Gamecocks chances in this game and believe they will keep it close.

The Buckeyes lead the nation in total offense while the Wolverines rank No. 9 in total defense. And in match-ups like this, we usually prefer the great defense. Also, of Ohio State's eight wins in a row over Michigan, most of those games were close in the third and fourth quarters. If the  Wolverines can run the ball a bit here and keep that OSU offense off the field, they can keep this one close, too. We're not calling for the outright upset here, but we're betting Michigan plus the points.

Ole Miss is averaging 517 yards per game on offense this season, but that Rebels defense concerns us after giving up 454 yards to a poor Vanderbilt outfit last week. Meanwhile, Coach Leach might be offense-oriented, but his Mississippi State defense is pretty good. Also, these two teams played six common opponents this season; Ole Miss played Alabama, Arkansas, LSU, Auburn, Texas A&M, and Vandy to +7 yards per game while the Bulldogs played those six foes to +84 YPG. Also, of MSU's four losses this season, three have come by a total of eight points. A few plays here and there, and Mississippi State might be 9-2, too. We're betting the Bulldogs here.

I believe the under has some value based on my projections. As long as the Arkansas defense avoids a collapse, I think the under 58 is a strong play!</p>

Wisconsin is playing good ball lately with a rejuvenated running game and a great defense. However, the Badgers haven't exactly played a Murderers' Row of a schedule as of late. Nebraska, meanwhile, maybe four games under .500 on the season, but it's actually out-gained opponents by almost 100 yards per game and out-rushed foes by 60 yards per game. And in taking all those close losses, the 'Huskers are actually above .500 ATS. We see another close game here, and Nebraska might even have enough to pull the upset. We like the 'Huskers plus the points. 

These two teams have played two common opponents this season; Louisville played Virginia and Wake Forest to a total of +2 yards while Duke played the Cavaliers and Demon Deacons to a total of -565 yards. Also, the Cardinals are playing for a bowl bid while the Blue Devils are just playing out the string. Finally, Louisville is playing on the road, where the spreads are usually a bit friendlier. We like the Cardinals here, minus the points. 

Purdue pulled off another nice upset victory last week, but in our minds, that just sets the Boilers up for a letdown this week. And Purdue's a little too pass-happy for our taste. Meanwhile, we suspect Ohio State might try to run the ball a little more than it did last week, which would be a very good thing to do. So while the line on this game is probably inflated by three or four points, we're giving those points and betting on the Buckeyes.  

I really like the over 51 and would also consider Mississippi State +4

Several signs point towards Pitt here, most notably the advantage on defense. But North Carolina, while disappointing, is still dangerous. If this game were lined before this season started, it would be about a pick 'em. Now, the Heels are getting a touchdown. And who would be surprised if Carolina won this game outright? We like the Tar Heels here, plus the points.        

We're assuming Northern Illinois will get those three key offensive players for this game; if not, bets are off. These teams have played three common opponents this season; the Huskies played 2-1 SU, 2-0-1 ATS against Toledo, Eastern Michigan, and Wyoming, and +19 yards per game, while Ball State played 1-2 both SU and ATS vs. those three opponents and -68 YPG. And after taking a tough loss last week, we won't be surprised if Northern Illinois bounces back. So we like the Huskies here.

We usually love taking good teams like Ohio State when they're playing on the road because the spreads are more amenable. But we remember the Buckeyes having trouble with Minnesota and Tulsa and losing to Oregon, and they didn't exactly blow Penn State out, either. Meanwhile, Nebraska is playing in some serious bad football luck, losing a whole bunch of close games over the last few seasons. Can the 'Huskers at least keep this one close, too? We believe they can if they keep the turnovers to a minimum. So we're taking Nebraska here, plus the points.