The result of this contest will likely be a margin that splits hairs as we see wiggle room to fade both the money line and spread markets in one foul swoop. Cleveland will likely win this contest outright as they have the momentum surging on their side after pulling off a very impressive win with their back against the wall. However, this market is likely playing on reactions with this offering against the spread. This game is likely a pick-em but given the fact Cleveland is at home and coming in off a big win, backers should be ready to spot a few points to the visitors. As we have seen in the last two occasions where the Warriors were a pooch, the champs have displayed why they should never be cast in such a light. A fixture of this consequence can often be forecasted as a no play, but we will read between the lines and target the consensus reaction to the Game Five result. Do not be surprised if Golden State actually puts Cleveland away once and for all, but given the reaction from the public in that market we won't play that angle either. Expect a dramatic contest that will likely be settled by a few key possessions, with that being said we will lay chalk and lean on the pooch with that points in this scenario.

We are by no means concerned about the absence of Draymond Green in this outing because the Warriors have shown they know how to win without key players over the span of this postseason already. Look no further than the display of supremacy by the Warriors against the Rockets and Trailblazers when they were without the services of their MVP point guard Stephen Curry. The Warriors responded with guard Klay Thompson picking up the slack and emerging as the chief scorer for Golden State. Despite the talent and flawless execution, Golden State employs a "next-man" up mentality and with Green being forced to sit Game Five, we can expect an expanded role for both Andre Iguodala and Harrison Barnes. Both Barnes and Iguodala are playmakers and battle-tested veterans that know how to make impact plays. While some may showcase some concern about whether or not Golden State can curtail King James, we show no timidity here because Cleveland has bigger fish to fry with "The Splash Brothers" leading a deluge of three-pointers that has propelled this team to success all season. Look for Golden State to wrap up their second consecutive NBA title tonight and to do so with an exclamation point against a weary and battered Cleveland Cavaliers. We are going in on Golden State in a "best bet" play.

Results of this nature almost always foster an overreaction. In fact, we saw a similar phenomenon take shape after the Thunder decimated the Warriors in Game Three and Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. Soon after, much of the consensus was laying the Warriors at the Oracle Arena in Game Five, even though they lost just three times there all season long. Golden State would win game five by a huge margin. In Game Six, we saw the Warriors offered as a slight pooch in similar capacity to what we are witnessing in this market.the Warriors would win Game Six decisively against the public opinion and market action. Bottom line, if we can take a team of this caliber with points, we will every time. We will chalk up Game Three to a flare up of the hiccups Golden State has suffered on the road all season long. Let us not forget the Warriors spanked the Cavaliers at the Quicken Loans Arena in the regular season and disregard the social media commotion that has been stirred from Cleveland's astounding Game Three performance. We will once again lean on Golden State in Game Four and lay a potential overreaction by the public to Game Three's outcome combined with Cleveland's perceived home court advantage in this series.

This market is a direct reflect of the phenomenon we champion which is known as the "King James Effect". Under any other circumstance, a team that lost the first two games in the series by an average margin of over 20 points per game would not be a one-point favorite at the open of the market, especially against a defending NBA Champion. However, as we have highlighted previously King James is perhaps the most marketable player in the NBA, even more so than two-time MVP Steph Curry as this is also reflected in betting markets as well. The evidence is painstaking, as the Warriors have shattered records and beaten down good basketball teams all season long, yet Cleveland is a pick-em after a disastrous start to the NBA Finals. Let us once again reinforce the fact that Cleveland has been outright owned by this Warriors bunch dating back to last year and the severity of the Warriors onslaught only seems to be getting worse for the Cavaliers in each game. We are astute to the fact that Cleveland plays much better at home and Golden State has had woes on the road, especially in the playoffs. But let's not forget one other thing, Golden State won a critical Game Six in Oklahoma City which ultimately led to a remarkable comeback in the Western Conference Finals and they also sealed their first ever NBA Championship in the Quicken Loans Arena, last year. While Cleveland is in the perfect position now to pick up a win given the almost superfluous level of Golden State's play, we will lay that angle and take the better team with no points to spot if the opportunity affords us that chance. We will lean on Golden State in Game Three.

For the second straight game we will play the chalk. In the fanaticism that revolves around LeBron James, takers are quick to forget we are getting a defending champion at home who has lost just three games there all season long. The Game One market was virtually down the middle and it was Golden State whom delivered. Now, Golden State has won 86 games this year and they have covered 57 times and only once were they a pooch. Cleveland has won 69 games this year and they have covered only 46 times and are below .500 against the spread. Despite Golden State defending a NBA title, featuring a MVP who was won the award two seasons in a row and breaking a seemingly unbreakable record they bode tremendous value. On the contrary, Cleveland is one of those teams that because they have arguably one of the greatest basketball players that ever played on the floor, they are prone to produce a plethora of overlays whether they are a dog or a favorite. Cleveland was not even close to covering in Game One, yet this market is identical to Game One's open and many are still intrigued by Cleveland regardless. We don't see the upside in playing on Cleveland, they have lost their last six against the Warriors and until they give us a reason to believe otherwise, we will stay off the Cavs and come back again on the Warriors in a "best bet" situation.

We are not typically hawkish on playing the chalk but this situation predicates it. Golden State has been a force to be reckoned with when they are the Oracle Center and given their dominance of this team in particular both in the NBA Finals last year and in the regular season this year, you have to think this game has the Warriors written all over it. The prognostication has been seductive, many analysts regale the 2015-16 Cavaliers as a better product to compete with the 2015-16 Warriors who are better than the squad that won its first ever NBA title in franchise history. Cleveland may have stepped their game up this season, but so has Golden State and they have 73 wins and a record in regular season victories to show for it. Cleveland has laid waste to meeker opposition and this was the expectation for the Cavs in their Eastern Conference campaign all season long. On the contrary, the champs have dispatched a resurgent Portland and overcame a clearly undervalued Oklahoma City in consecutive series. This Cleveland squad may be a step back for the Warriors and the final score of Game One may likely reflect this. We will go ahead and lean on the Warriors and spot the points.

Oklahoma City had their chances in Game Six to put away the Warriors but they failed to do so. The duo of Curry and Thompson made the Thunder pay and many now believe the series may have slipped away from OKC's grasp. With this being established, it is hard to imagine the Warriors losing Game Seven at the Oracle Arena but there is enough wiggle room in this market to make a play on the Thunder. With a majority of the public expressing interest in Golden State with a fair amount of points, we wouldn't be surprised if this game was settled by slim margins. The ebb and flow of this series has once again placed Oklahoma City in a position where they have nothing to lose. With this narrative considered, the Thunder may enter this game with less jitters, comparable to what we saw out of OKC in Game One. If that same Oklahoma City squad from Game One takes the court, there is value in taking the Thunder regardless of whether they win outright or cover. We will go ahead and lean on the Thunder in Game Seven.

This market opened at a small allotment of points being spotted to the Warriors. This is the first time in a very long time we have seen the defending champs pitched as a pooch and yet the public is all the more enamored by the Thunder. Oklahoma City as mentioned has won their last four at the Chesapeake Energy Arena, Golden State and San Antonio being the assailed. Given their recent successes at home, an overreaction on the Thunder is highly plausible. The market initially may have been designed to lure Warriors backers but instead a steady stream of action has pushed this line up by a full point further in favor of the Thunder. Let us reiterate the fact that we get the chance to take back a defending NBA champion with a two-time MVP and a record-setting regular season win total with points. The upside of this is astronomical. Oklahoma City is formidable at home and the allure is all the more captivating with their recent dominance of the West's best squads. However, we have seen the Thunder choke when the spotlights were on them in the past. Now, all eyes are on OKC as they have a chance to dethrone the defending champs and we have to speculate now if the pressure will begin to mount on the Oklahoma City ranks. As for Golden State, this team has flourished in hostile venues all year and they found ways to win almost always, thus this market compels us all the more to fade the public and lean on the Warriors with the points.

Game Five was a great selling point for Cleveland as the Cavaliers seem to now have the Raptors exactly where they want them. Similar sentiments were purveyed after Game Two when Cleveland continued to batter a seemingly unresolved and inexperienced Toronto club. The Raptors with the help of their rabid following in the Great White North would claw their way back in to the series and tie up the series at two games a-piece. Nonetheless, the result Toronto achieved in Cleveland was to be expected. The Raptors have had trouble on the road all year long and we cannot stress enough how different this team plays in front of their own fans.
The Raptors have gone the distance in their previous two series in this post-season, a Game Seven situation was required for a winner to be determined in both the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals and Eastern Conference Semifinals. Toronto is 2-0 in Game Sevens and it is no surprise as both those affairs were conducted within the Air Canada Centre. Toronto had numerous opportunities to blow several series at home or find themselves without any glimmer of hope in this particular series, yet the Great White North was the difference maker. Bottom line is this, Cleveland has swept both their opponents leading up to this series and Toronto could have easily folded their tents when they were down 2-0, but they didn't. The Raps know if they win this game tonight, they force another Game Seven which plays right in to their wheelhouse even if the game is away from Toronto. Nevertheless we feel hard-pressed to believe that Cleveland will have their way against the Raptors in this one and even if they do win, the Raptors will assuredly go down swinging with their loyal fans standing beside them. Toronto at home with points is always a "best bet" in our book.

Playing the chalk is typically a risky move but when you get Golden State at a price that may actually not be inflated for once we cannot resist. The Thunder have owned Golden State all series long, we won't dispute that. However, two of Oklahoma City's recently impressive results were fostered in the confines of the Chesapeake Energy Arena when they smacked Golden State up and down the court in both Game Three and Game Four. We would be remiss to mention OKC's upset of Golden State at the Oracle Center in Game One and how the defending champions responded to that outcome. In Game Two, the Warriors answered with fury and smoked the Thunder by a margin of twenty-seven.
This market is a clear cut example of an overreaction to the stellar play of the Thunder. Lest us forget that champions perform their best when their back is against a wall. Don't expect the Warriors to bow out after they were sullied in their last two fixtures, especially in an arena they have owned for the last two seasons. Golden State has lost just six times at home in the last two seasons including the playoffs when they are in Oakland. While Golden State may be in unfamiliar territory with a "win or die" scenario in play, this market plays right in to our sweet spot as the Warriors will likely go back to the drawing board and find ways to slow down OKC. It starts with scoring and with many fixtures being high-scoring as of late, the market anticipates another barnburner. With this being said, we will fade the public in both the Spread and Total Line markets and take Golden State and the Under in a "best bet" opportunity as the Warriors will likely rely on revamping their defensive operations to send this series back to Oklahoma City.

Initially this market opened as a pick-em but since then we have seen a steady stream of action come in on the Warriors and as a result an option has emerged again to back the Thunder at home with points. We have loved this angle all throughout the playoffs and this initiative has yielded profits. OKC has now won their last three games at home and these results were fostered against San Antonio twice and Golden State in their most recent phenomenon. We'll attack this late money and go back on the Thunder, but we will take the Thunder outright as the point offering is inconsequential given it is only two points. As long as the Thunder continue to dominate in the Chesapeake Energy Arena, there is no reason to suspect this team can't win Game Four and go up 3-1 in this series. Given the Game Three result, the Thunder may have Golden State's number and given the fact we can reduce the juice a bit more in exchange for a free bucket, this scenario opens the door for a "best bet" situation with Oklahoma City outright on the Money Line.

The writing was on the wall in Game Three and in spite of the vulnerability backers undertake in spotting significant points to a potentially live home pooch, much of the public are back on the Cavaliers yet again in Game Four. Nevertheless, the revelation is a bit stifling as the Raptors found a way to dictate and control Game Three in a way that is signature to the Raptors' style of play. As we have said it before and we will say it again, Toronto is different team in the Great White North and their Game Three efforts reflect this. The Raptors did not look remotely close to the same team that fell in Game One and Game Two and they will look to continue to build on their success at home with a notable advantage. With most of the public apparently unimpressed by the Game Three result, we will once again go back on Toronto in what will be a "best bet" situation.

The Warriors were the benefactors of some good calls on the road in Portland in the Western Conference Semifinals. Had some of these calls gone the other way, Portland may have won twice against Golden State at the Moda Center, a place notorious for home court advantage being influential in game outcomes. At the Toyota Center, Houston stole a win against Golden State at the hands of James Harden's heroics but that is ancient history at this point. While Houston and most certainly Portland boast a significant home court advantage, the Thunder are perhaps one of the premiere franchises in the NBA that pride themselves on playing at a superior level while at home.
Golden State needed overtime to get rid of OKC on the road, in the regular season and it was once again the heroics of Stephen Curry that made the difference in that late February affair. With this being considered, the Thunder are a dangerous team at home and perhaps even more lethal when many underestimate them in the aftermath of Golden State's Game Two performance. However, we refuse to get caught up in the undertow of the Golden State hype machine. Yes, the Warriors have achieved historic accolades but nonetheless Oklahoma City at home with points is almost always "best bet" situation at this point when you consider the fact that the Thunder have lost just four games at home since February all by a margin of four points or less. We are going back on the Thunder with the points and take advantage of a friendly price for a strong home team against a volatile road favorite that is just .500 on the road through the playoffs.

Despite Cleveland dominating this series, we will once again continue our assault on the Cavaliers. With the Cavs continuing to foster prolific results against Toronto, winning by an average margin of 25 points in the first two games; the expected reaction from the public is an overreaction. Though the Raptors may be seen as dead in the water as this point, the Raps can actually claw their way back in to this series with the next two fixtures transpiring in the Great White North. In the 2015-16 season, Cleveland is winless in Toronto. The Raptors own two wins over the Cavaliers in the Air Canada Centre and in their most recent encounter in this building in February, the Raps were a home dog and won outright regardless. The fact of the matter remains, Toronto is a different team when they are at home.
Reinforcing the buy-low/sell-high angle currently manifesting with the ailing Raptors and soaring Cavaliers, Cleveland is set up perfectly for a let-down after generating results that only furthered a masterpiece post-season campaign. Things cannot get any worse for Toronto, nor can Cleveland pull off anything they already have not achieved. With all this considered, Toronto may look to dictate the pace of this game by turning it in to a defensive-oriented game and limit Cleveland's opportunities to score. The impeccable shooting of Cleveland is due for attrition, which in turn will cause the scoring to decrease if Cleveland cools off at all. With these notions considered, we will fade the public in the Total Market as these precepts open the door for a lean on the under. In addition, we will also lean on Toronto who has been a potent and live dog at home when they were positioned in this very predicament before. When Toronto defeated Cleveland 99-97 in February, the Raptors were routed in Cleveland in the contest leading up to this fixture by twenty-two points. History may repeat itself.

The result of this contest plays perfectly in to our wheelhouse. After Cleveland made an example out of Toronto in Game One, the market is ever more tempting when Cleveland is spotting just two more points. Thus we have seen a gross overreaction from the public in taking the Cavaliers against the spread. Often analytics of this measure indicate there is a substantial chance for an overlay. We have seen a resounding increase in the odds particularly in the Money Line. The market reflects the sentiments of the consensus, basically writing off any smidgeon of hope that Toronto can orchestrate an upset.
Nevertheless, we have been firm in our stance regarding the hidden premiums that are assessed with taking back teams like Cleveland and this reaction and set-up showcases this impeccably. As we have highlighted previously, Toronto has dropped Game One in both series they have won in the playoffs up to this point. With this consideration, it is safe to surmise that the Raptors have room to improve and Cleveland may be due for attrition given their performance in the post-season so far. When you consider the potential buy-low/sell-high situation for the respective combatants, there is all the more value in once again going in on Toronto with the points.

As we have vehemently pushed previously when you get Golden State at home, you are likely to incur a heavy premium. This narrative crushed many bankrolls in Game One, as we saw resounding action from the public on the Warriors outright when they fell to the Thunder in spectacular fashion. After Game One, the public sees the Game One result fostered by the Thunder as a one-off. However, the Thunder pulled off what no other team has done all year, and that is come from behind in the second half against Golden State when the Warriors were holding a thirteen-point lead. If this feat seemed unfathomable by itself, doing so at a place where the Warriors have lost just twice all year and had yet to lose in the playoffs, makes this spectacle titanic. This has been the motif of OKC over the course of the playoffs, winning games they are expected to lose and doing so with style. As long as the public continues to dine on these inflated lines and overlook an undervalued opponent, we will always opt in. This situation, in particular, opens the door for a "best bet" scenario; and while we are at it, we will lay the points on the over and take the under as well, be that Game One's total was nowhere near this offering.

In Game One of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, we saw the Detroit Pistons offered at an identical price to the Toronto Raptors. However, there are huge differences between the Eastern Conference No. 8 seed and the runner-up No. 2 seed. Toronto like Detroit owned the lead in the regular season series, as they won 2 of 3 contests between the two, both in the Great White North. Toronto's sole defeat against the Cavs came in Cleveland and they were beat handily 122-100. Nevertheless, Toronto is a much different team now and when it is all said and done, Cleveland owns just 1 more win than Toronto.
Nevertheless, we appreciate the angle, Cleveland has not lost a game yet in the playoffs while Toronto had to grind out two seven-game donnybrooks. With this in consideration, this can all go out the window as each series is different and Toronto is a team that knows it can play with and beat this Cleveland bunch. A hefty premium assessed on taking LeBron at home creates a huge overlay and we will swoop in and scoff it up.

With Miami pulling off a monumental win in the American Airlines Center on Friday, much of the public is enamored now with the prospect of the LeBron's current team versus LeBron's former team match-up. Such was the fixation when King James was in Miami and left Cleveland before the Prodigal Son returned home to his native Ohio. However, we saw Toronto in this situation before in the Eastern Conference Semifinals against Indiana where the Pacers forced a Game Seven. While there were many who felt Toronto would inevitably fall due to the ghosts of playoffs past haunting them, the Raptors would take care of business and put the Pacers away. Very simple, the Raptors are the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference for a reason, they are a rugged, talented team with a true home court advantage. Chalk this up one up to the Great White North doing what they do best and powering their Raptors toward the Eastern Conference Finals where they will be a snare for the heavily favored Cleveland Cavaliers. We are going to go ahead and say Toronto is in a "best bet" situation.

Toronto has had many struggles when the limelight is focused on them. We can't help but notice that the NBA often gets the storylines they want. From a holistic perspective, Cleveland vs. Miami is likely to generate more of a buzz than Toronto against Cleveland. Why? Because the panorama of LeBron James squaring off with his former team is a motif that will likely boost ratings. While we are not conspiracy theorists of any sort, Toronto has been in this position before when the stakes were lower and laid an egg. While the public may be reluctant to take the Heat outright because of the juice required, the Heat are certainly a solid pick at home, as they have found ways to come up big there all season long. Toronto has had many struggles on the road, but none in this series. Nevertheless, it is yet to be determined how this team will perform when they have a chance to take another gigantic leap on a franchise level. As for Miami, they have personnel that have been in this predicament before, most notably Dwayne Wade. It is hard to imagine Miami loses this game at home but we are by no means suggesting this is a best bet. On the contrary, with a high expectation of anemic scoring, we have an opportunity to score a friendly price on taking the over and that will be our "best bet" in this scenario.

Portland earlier this year handed Golden State a crushing defeat, when they routed the Warriors by 32 points and put up 137 points in Rip City. This shocking upset came right after the All Star break, when the Warriors were highly hyped and scrutinized. With this outcome kept in mind, the Blazers will enter this contest with nothing to lose and try to exploit a similar narrative taking shape. Rip City will likely try to duplicate that success they garnered against Golden State in February and go back to the game plan that allowed them to achieve such a feat. Portland knows they have to win this game to keep any chance of hope alive in this series and with the return of Steph Curry inching ever so closer, Portland needs to pick up wins now before it is too late. With a sense of urgency, Portland will likely throw the kitchen sink at Golden State and they have the home court advantage that may get them over the hump. We are leaning on Portland in this one.