New York Yankees at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Analysis & Free Pick | 10/25/24

New York Yankees at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Analysis & Free Pick | 10/25/24

Darin Zank
Date: October 25, 4:13 pm
Location: Dodger Stadium
TV: Fox

Betting Odds

Moneyline: NYY +105 / LAD -125
Total: 8.5

New York Yankees (94-68) at Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64), 10/25/24

When: 8:08 pm ET Friday, Oct. 25

Where: Dodger Stadium

TV: Fox

Game 1 Betting odds: NYY +105 / LAD -125

Over/Under: 8.5

It doesn’t happen often, but the best team in the American League faces off against the best in the National League as the Yankees and Dodgers meet for Game 1 of the 2024 World Series at Chavez Ravine. Los Angeles’s Jack Flaherty, a crucial trade deadline acquisition, will start against New York’s ace Gerrit Cole.

World Series Betting Odds

The Game 1 betting market opened with Los Angeles as a -130 favorite over New York, with an over/under set at 8.5 runs. Early action moved the Dodgers’ odds slightly to -125. In series odds, Los Angeles is favored at -125 to win, while the Yankees are at +105.

Game 1 Betting Preview

New York’s 94-win season secured them the No. 1 seed in the American League, leading to a 3-1 divisional-round victory over Kansas City and a 4-1 win over Cleveland in the ALCS, returning the Yankees to the World Series for the first time since 2009.

The Dodgers, with a 98-win season, clinched the top spot in the National League. They defeated San Diego 3-2 in the division series and the Mets 4-2 in the NLCS, marking their fourth World Series appearance in the past eight years.

These teams last met in June, with the Dodgers taking two out of three games at Yankee Stadium. Neither Game 1 starter pitched in that series.

Game 1 Pitching Match-Up

Flaherty, who joined the Dodgers from Detroit in August, has delivered 11 quality starts out of 28 this season but only two in 10 starts with Los Angeles. He’s 1-for-3 in quality starts this postseason, including a rough outing against the Mets last Friday where he allowed eight runs in three innings. Flaherty last faced the Yankees in July 2023, throwing six shutout innings with the Cardinals, though this Yankees lineup now includes stars like Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton.

Cole graded with eight quality starts out of 17 this season and is 1-for-3 in quality starts in the playoffs. His most recent performance included allowing two runs over 4 1/3 innings in the Yankees' ALCS-clinching win against Cleveland. The Yankees were 10-7 with Cole on the mound in the regular season and are 3-0 with him in the playoffs. His last outing against the Dodgers came in June 2023, allowing one run over six innings. Notably, this Dodgers lineup now features Shohei Ohtani.

Splits With the Sticks

New York hit .253 against right-handers this season with a .332 OBP and a .445 SLG. Los Angeles posted a similar .253 average with a .334 OBP and .442 SLG against righties, placing both teams among the top four lineups in this split.

The Bullpens

The Dodgers bullpen recorded a 3.53 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 2.69 K/BB ratio. Meanwhile, the Yankees bullpen posted a 3.62 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and a 2.62 K/BB ratio. Los Angeles holds a slight edge in bullpen metrics.

MLB Betting Trends

  • New York posted an MLB-best 50-31 road record and a 73-45 mark against right-handed starters.
  • Los Angeles went 52-29 at home (second-best in the majors) and 62-47 against right-handers.

Totals Report

  • Overs hit in 86 of Yankees games (86-69) and 89 Dodgers games (89-68) this season.
  • Overs are a combined 13-5 in both teams' postseason games.
  • Dodger Stadium overs played 45-31 this season.
  • Combined overs were 23-22 with Flaherty and Cole on the mound this year.

Game 1 Prop Board

  • Yankees’ Juan Soto: +130 for 2+ total bases; +300 to hit a home run.
  • Dodgers’ Max Muncy: +140 for 2+ total bases; +350 to hit a homer.

Free MLB World Series Pick

These teams are closely matched across key metrics, from wins to run differential, bullpen strength, and lineup depth. The tight line on Game 1 reflects that balance. While Flaherty has struggled in two of three postseason outings, Cole has shown slightly better consistency, allowing six earned runs over 16 1/3 innings. With New York as the underdog, we find good value in backing the Yankees in Game 1.

Free Pick: Take the Yankees +105
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