College Football Picks - Free Weekly ATS Predictions
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Nebraska at 5-7 is the poster child for why there are just too many postseason bowl games. The Bruins had some disappointing losses this season, but they still earned their way into this game. Look for UCLA to make a statement with a SU win that easily covers the current 6.5-point spread.
Both of these teams know how to score points and they also know how to give them up in bunches. By the time this one is over it could look more like a basketball score between the two so I am going with the OVER 67.5 as my "best bet" pick.
I would have to go with the Aztecs SU as the better overall team in this matchup which makes the point and a half on the current spread a gift. San Diego State's defense should be able to keep the Bearcats' aerial attack grounded and the Aztecs should be able to put some points on the board when they have the ball.
This matchup should be one of the more entertaining bowl games in the early part of the schedule. Both teams have quarterbacks that know how to move the ball down field through the air and that should translate to quite a few points on the scoreboard. Picking a side will be tight, so I am going with the OVER 62.5 as my "best bet" play in this game.
This matchup boils down to the Eagles' ability to move the ball on the ground against the Falcons' ability to once again take to the air to put points on the board. This game could easily turn into a wild shootout on the scoreboard, but in the end I am going with Bowling Green to win and cover the seven-point spread.
This should be a good battle between two teams that are somewhat familiar with one another. I like a play on the UNDER 50.5 in this game, but my "best bet" pick is to lay the point and a half and go with the Owls as the better overall team.
South Florida will have the home field advantage in this matchup given where the game is being played, but I have to go with the Hilltoppers both SU and ATS as my "best bet" play. The Bulls are a good team on both sides of the ball, but I cannot see them keeping pace on the scoreboard against Western Kentucky.
These are two teams that remain extremely familiar with one another, but the edge in this matchup goes to BYU in my book. It comes in with the hotter hand with a nice run down the stretch and I have to wonder just how motivated Utah will be given the high expectation level it had for this season following that 6-0 start. Take the three points and the Cougars in this one.
The Spartans really proved something to me in their game against the Buckeyes gutting out the 17-14 win on the road with a back-up QB, handing the Buckeyes their first loss in 23 games. They got it done on the ground amassing 203 rushing yards with Ohio State knowing that with back-up QB Tyler O'Connor that this would be a run first offense. The Hawkeyes run defense looked incredible in the early season holding all but North Texas (who faced backups in the 2nd half) to 86 or fewer yards in their first seven games. They've fallen quite a bit since then allowing 160.2 rushing yards per game in their next five. Michigan State's Run D if anything came on. Iowa allowed an average of 97.9 rushing yards per game overall but 123 yards versus the Big Ten while facing only three of top five Big Ten rushing teams. Michigan State 118.2 rushing yards per game overall and 117.9 against the conference facing three of the top five including holding the number one rushing offense of Ohio State to 186 yards BELOW their Big Ten average. Through the air Spartans' QB Connor Cook has been far superior to the Hawkeyes CJ Beathard in Big Ten play, so for Iowa to win this game they'll have to be the superior running team and on paper they're not.
Clemson has gotten the best of this matchup in recent years, but in the past North Carolina was not as nearly as good as it is this season. This should set the stage for a fantastic showdown in this year's ACC title game and while I still like the Tigers coming out on top SU, I am going to take the Tar Heels and the 5.5 points as my "best bet" pick in this one.
I went big on North Carolina last Saturday as one of my "best bet" picks and I am riding the Tar Heels again in this matchup. They have their sights set on Clemson in that ACC title game, but they will not get caught looking past the Hokies this Saturday in Blacksburg.
This is a game that will probably be won by the team that makes the fewest mistakes. East Carolina is clearly the better half of this matchup and it should win this game SU, but I do not trust the Pirates to cover a 15-point spread on the road.
I mentioned last week how poor the Duke defense is when facing a team with a balanced attack and that rung true as they found themselves on the wrong side of a 66-31 spanking. They meet another team with a balanced offense this week and while I don't think we'll see the same type of margin I do believe that the Panthers can win this game. The points are a bonus.
The Trojans have been going deep into the depth chart trying to find someone who can play center having lost their first string C Max Tuerk for the season in the Washington game and a very solid Toa Lobendahn who was moved from a starting guard to center to replace Tuerk in The Utah game. Their offense just hasn't looked the same in their two matches since and they certainly weren't facing top level defenses with California ranking 80th and Arizona 103rd in scoring defense winning by 8 and 6 points. This isn't a team that should be favored by 16.5 points on the road. The weather also might be a problem for USC with temperatures in the low 30's expected at kickoff.
These two teams may be somewhat close in the standings, but they are not all that close on the field. While Miami has still been inconsistent at times, the Tar Heels are solid right across the board. Lay the 12.5 points in this one as North Carolina rolls to another big win while covering the spread.
The underdog has been a solid bet in this matchup and I like the Hokies chances to keep this trend going in Saturday's game with the extra half-point on the current spread. I also like the UNDER in this game as long as it opens around 41 or 42. Neither of these teams have been playing all that well this season on offense and things should remain tight right down to the wire in a three-point game either way.
The numbers for both teams seem about even with the Tar Heels having a small edge offensively and the Blue Devils having the edge defensively. However, once you break down Duke's schedule it becomes obvious that their opponent's in the first six games were one dimensional on offense. In the first six games they faced Army ranked 126th in passing yards per game, Boston College 124, Georgia Tech 121 and Tulane 91 allowing them to focus stopping the run. Once they faced teams with some sort of balance on offense in Miami and Virginia Tech they were torched for 73 points. The line is a lot higher than I like playing, but UNC at home against FBS opponents has won all by 34, 36 and 7 points, so it's not like they can't extend the margin.
While I really like the Horned Frogs' chances to get off to a hot start by easily covering the two touchdowns on the road, my "best bet" pick in this game is the OVER on a total line of 57. TCU has a good chance to score that many points on its own.
Both teams suffered some significant losses in talent from last year's rosters, but the Gamecocks still hold a significant edge when it comes to evaluating the current level of talent that each team possesses coming into a new season of football. South Carolina has its sights set on a SEC title and a spot this year's four-team playoff and it takes a step in the right direction with a convincing win that covers the 10.5-point spread.