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I'd lean to the Yankees if you twisted my arm for a side play, but the total offers more value here. Both of tonight's starters the Jays' Marco Estrada and the Yankees' Ivan Nova have been giving up the long ball and with the wind blowing out tonight. I'm confident that there will be enough runs put on the board to get past the O/U number.
The Royals' starter Edinson Volquez has strong numbers versus the Twins racking up a quality start in all six of his lifetime starts against them. However, he hasn't had his best stuff on the road this season going 1-2 with an embarrassing 8.22 ERA and looks to get back on track tonight. Minnesota starter Ervin Santana has been sharp allowing a combined three earned runs in his last two starts and while he has pitched well in his three against Kansas City, his team has lost his last five starts against the Royals. KC has won all four of their matches this season and seven straight against Minnesota and I'll take a shot at them making at eight straight at a moderate price tonight.
The A's starter Rich Hill has had some success against the Mariners recording a quality starts against in all three of his career starts. That said, two of the three starts came in 2009 or earlier. He did look great in his early April start against them striking out 10 over six innings allowing one run. The Mariners' starter Taijuan Walker has mediocre numbers against the Athletics' lineup and hasn't recorded a quality start the last four times he has been handed the ball. I'll go against two streaks and lay down on the visitor.
Both starting pitchers have okay historic numbers against their opponent's roster, but they've struggled this season overall with ERA's in the 5's. Runs shouldn't be a problem today.
The Rays starter Drew Smiley hasn't had his best stuff as of late with zero quality starts in his last three starts. He has one career start against the Tigers and the line-up has just 37 at bats against with moderate success. Rookie Michael Fulmer will be making his fifth MLB start and first at home and he could improve, but he hasn't shown much so far and it could be argued that his last outing was his worst. Both teams' hitters are tearing the cover off the ball, but the visitor has faced on paper superior pitching during their streak and that's where I'm going to side in this event.
The Mariners' batters were ice-cold against the Angels in their latest, but were swinging the bats well before that scoring five or more runs in five consecutive games. The Orioles' starter Ubaldo Jimenez comes into this game with a 2-1 record at home and a 4.55 ERA (1.72 WHIP) in five starts and hasn't overpowered the current Seattle batters in the past. Baltimore has also been doing their share of scoring with their offense putting up at least five runs on the board in seven of their last eight games. Seattle's named starter Wade Miley carries a 5.48 road ERA into this game and has just one quality start in four outings on the road this season.
The Dodgers are in an excellent position to take the early edge in this series with Kershaw on the mound as heavy home favorites, but given Hammels' recent form it sets up a "best bet" play on the UNDER in this game in spite of a low total line of 6.